By Dr Jayashree Nath
The withdrawal of the United States security forces from Bagram Airfield on July 1 after nearly two decades and without informing the Afghan government signals a strategic failure of the US approach on Afghanistan. The recent pull out of US forces signals the coming instability and insecurity that Afghanistan and the region will face in the coming days. In its early years, the US led war on terrorism was motivated to ensure that Taliban regime in Afghanistan could no longer harbour international terrorists. The policy provided a positive aspect of stability and security in Afghanistan, established a democratic regime for a temporary period. However, after the killing of mastermind Osama bin Laden, the weariness that overtook the US gradually reenergised the Taliban to regain control in the region. Currently, almost 85 to 90 percent of Afghan territory is under the control of the Taliban and the country has been going through a civil war like situation. Besides, the established democratic institutions and government in Kabul also remained limited and powerless due to its overdependence on foreign aid. The US has not specified a comprehensive plan on economic aid and security assistance.
Post 9/11 and India’s Approach on Afghanistan
Post 9/11, war on terrorism in Afghanistan provided India prospects to revitalise its lost relations with Kabul extending towards Central Asia, Iran, Russia and beyond. India, considering the geopolitical, economic, energy and security implications, had established relations based on humanitarian assistance and development. India’s developmental approach towards Afghanistan is the embodiment of the soft power approach benefiting both the countries. India’s humanitarian assistance and developmental projects despite the attacks and threats includes the construction of parliament building, schools, colleges, hospitals, dams, construction of roads and railways to connect within and bordering countries, sending biscuits, wheat etc. New Delhi helped to connect major highways and provide an alternative gateway to land-locked Afghanistan by constructing roads that connect to the Chabahar port of Iran. The major advancement of Taliban in Afghanistan is a setback for India as New Delhi has established cordial relation with the Afghan people and a democratic government in Kabul post 9/11 had engaged in community building services, medical and healthcare services through deployment of Indian doctors and nurses, engineers for construction of roads, training and scholarships to civil servants, training Afghan military personal in India etc. India’s investments in various projects and humanitarian assistance is aimed at future prospects and prosperity in Afghanistan that will augment the security and stability of the country and the region. The TAPI pipeline project, INSTC are some major ongoing projects to be mentioned which are hamstrung by the security situation in Afghanistan.
India’s Afghan Concerns
Afghanistan remained an important factor in furthering India’s foreign policy in its neighbourhood region. It is a nation that shares a long border with Pakistan that always carries security implications for India both internal and external, on the other hand, it shares border with energy rich friendly countries of Central Asia, Russia and Iran. Besides, since remote past the region shared cultural and civilisational relations which found a new dimension post-colonial development, while partition divided colonial India into two independent countries founding the ground for lifelong enmities. Interestingly, Afghanistan was never ruled by colonial master and managed to remain as a buffer zone between Tsar Empire and British Empire. Moreover, New Delhi for a very short period of time after independence was able to establish good relations with Kabul resulting the signing of ‘Friendship Treaty’ in 1950.
Nevertheless, the rise of Islamic fundamentalists and Taliban regime in Afghanistan impacted the relations and creating instability to the whole region at large and India too. The hijacking of Indian Airlines and the nexus between Pakistan, Taliban and Islamic fundamentalist worked against India in J & K region gained a new height in terms of security concerns. Pakistan is a key player that used to spread anti-Indian propaganda not only in Afghanistan but towards Central Asian region. Pakistan plays a key role in terms of security, stability and broader security point of view that is interlocked with India’s domestic and regional security perspective and connected with New Delhi’s Central Asia policy too. Islamabad reserved a very cynical view on India’s approach in the region. Pakistan was found carrying out anti-Indian activities and attacks in Afghanistan associating with insurgent groups especially with the Haqqani Network which was engaged in attacks of Indian aid workers in Afghanistan including the 2008 suicide bombing attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul. The U.S. intelligence agency was able to trace the connection between Haqqani Network and Pakistan’s Intelligence Agencies for the attacks. Pakistan is a key concern for New Delhi in furthering Afghan policy. Afterwards, India was allowed to deploy its own security personnel ITBP to provide security for Indians working in Afghanistan.
The controversial amendment of Indian Citizenship Act that provides conditions to apply for Indian citizenship by those who are persecuted on grounds of being religious minorities that included the people of Afghanistan is an important area of concern. The ethnic minorities of Afghanistan already started fleeing to neighbouring countries of Central Asia, Iran and Pakistan. New Delhi may see a sharp rise in asylum seekers from the region.
The Initiatives:At the diplomatic and strategic level, New Delhi has been engaged in cooperation and negotiation with major stakeholders on Afghan issues. It has been proactively engaged in both bilateral and multi-lateral initiative that advocates for a secure, stable and prosperous Afghanistan. New Delhi supports an Afghan-led and Afghan owned peace process that will help to establish a sovereign, united, democratic, peaceful, inclusive, secure and stable Afghanistan. As a major developmental partner, India shares Dialogue platforms with United States on Afghanistan including becoming a key member of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process on Afghanistan. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is another platform that includes major regional powers of Russia, China and India. It also includes all neighbouring countries of Afghanistan; Central Asian countries and Pakistan. Afghanistan is an observer member of SCO group. However, nothing can change the upcoming turmoil if the differences among the countries of the region and major powers continues. The need of hour is to join hands together to find a definite plan to resolve the Afghan crisis. The picture is one of disarray right now.
At this critical juncture, New Delhi is looking at dialogues with Eurasian countries as these countries share their concerns with India. Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was visiting one country after another starting from Tehran, Moscow, Eurasia in line with the ministerial level meeting of SCO to ensure a common programme on the recent developments in Afghanistan.
The writer is Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Morigaon College, Morigaon (Assam) E-mail: [email protected]
The Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan which played a major role in sheltering, sponsoring and training the separatist Islamic fundamentalist group of the neighbouring countries of the region including China’s Uyghur separatists, Chechens of Russia, separatist group of Fergana Valley of Central Asia including Islamic separatist groups of Jammu and Kashmir of India will carry a major security risk for the whole region. However, till now there is no such common plan outlined from the countries of the region while Afghanistan is heading towards a perilous civil war that will mark a period of major instability and a security threat for the region including India.
The writer is Assistant Professor, Dept. of Political Science, Morigaon College, Morigaon (Assam) E-mail: [email protected]