By Glenn C. Kharkongor
The special article by Patricia Mukhim, “How long is too long?” (ST July 23, 2021) has pertinence and poignancy. The Covid pandemic and ensuing lockdowns have moved beyond statistical data, political point-scoring and blurry conspiracies. The TV and print media make much of all this, but a human tragedy is unfolding before our unseeing eyes.
Yet there are individuals and groups with untiring compassion, whose deeds, sung and unsung, have brought relief to many. For humanitarian work, we usually think of organizations like gurdwaras or the Sisters of Charity, but the pandemic has brought to the fore others of all ethnic, religious and political hues, whose humane work are an example to us all. They are many such people in Shillong.
As Patricia Mukhim says so appealingly, “Life is a value chain…when the chain breaks everyone is hurt. The pandemic has broken that value chain”. In this value chain, each link is a precious human being, man, woman, child, and the non-binary individual. Yet in the data, they are reduced to ciphers, and have no place in the empty brouhaha of armchair dialogues. Data is not an end in itself. It is not even the beginning.
Amid the many distractions that the government faces, so evident on the front pages of the daily newspapers, Covid fatigue seems to have set in. Part of it is complacency, part of it is not knowing what to do next. The connections between political governance, bureaucratic administration, health services, expert institutions, and so-called traditional bodies, seem to be disjointed and ineffectual.
The government, rightly so, depends on data to make policies and schemes, to apportion funds and to determine urgent priorities of action. There is no dearth of data on Covid, it flows endlessly, and while we may despair at the evolving and incomplete science, the government and its expert advisors must parse and disaggregate the data daily so that directions and mid-course corrections can be decided. This seemingly, is not happening.
Missing data and analysis
The table below shows the data breakdown that should be available and looked it. Maybe it is available in some backroom, but the lack of definitive decision-making reflects the paucity of proper data crunching. It should not be that the media or concerned citizens should have to ask these questions. The government should be ahead of the curve.
The Meghalaya National Health Mission and the Department of Health & Family Welfare websites provide the same basic and undifferentiated data, the only difference is the colour display of the graphics. Evidently the expert resources in the state are inadequate or unavailed. The Health Minister is reported as stating that “we have called people from Delhi to give presentations.” (ST July 23, 2021)
The Hindu of July 23, 2021, has provided a detailed analysis in a special feature titled, “Covid-19 Grips Northeast”. Some telltale snippets are revealing and useful. Three-fourths (75%) of the cases in Meghalaya are of the Delta variant. From this we may infer that because the Delta variant is about three times as contagious as the original strain, the number of daily positives will be expectedly much higher. Since most of them will be asymptomatic or mild, perhaps the current numbers of daily positives may not be such a worry. This is corroborated by the fact that as of yesterday, only 42% of Covid beds were occupied in the state.
Surveillance
Three days ago the ICMR published its fourth Covid sero-surveillance report which showed that two-thirds of Indians have Covid antibodies, including more than half the children. This is encouraging progress towards herd immunity, but the study has gaps. Out of the 21 states in the survey, none of the Northeast states are included, apart from Assam. Meghalaya should conduct its own survey and compile its own granular data. This is not a very costly or logistically difficult exercise. The national survey needed to include only 30, 000 individuals in 69 districts. The number of individuals that will need to be tested in Meghalaya will be far less.
The level of antibody-positivity found in such surveys are not the only input to decision making but may provide a more nuanced evaluation of rural-urban and age group differences that can assist in differential administrative strategies between regions and districts.
What next?
Vaccination: the High Court of Meghalaya has observed that the issue of vaccine hesitation has not been addressed effectively in the state and has made it clear that it will monitor this issue closely. It does seem that the government is trying hard by various means to reach out and convince the hesitant. Unfortunately, vaccine refusal in Meghalaya is higher than in the rest of the country. A large portion of the blame rests with the people.
Dr Gangadeep Kang of CMC Vellore, suggests a goal for vaccination coverage of 70%. Till then, we must use masks, ensure good ventilation and limit human contact. Stubborn refusals to take the vaccine will not only delay the lifting of lockdown restrictions, but may also provide human harbours for the emergence of new variants. One of the graphics from The Hindu shows the decreasing fatality rate in Sikkim and Tripura, because of high vaccination rates.
Lift more unlock restrictions: The alternate days for opening of shops has little logic. While new cases seem to have plateaued at about half the peak rate, the number of severe cases requiring hospitalization has decreased markedly, and most deaths are reportedly those brought in late stages. Opening tourist spots for limited numbers of vaccinated visitors should be allowed. Delhi has announced a graded-response plan that is linked to hospital bed occupancy.
The rising restlessness of the economically- affected will disrupt lockdown attempts. It is better to open up while urging vaccination and citizen responsibility. There is little need for restrictions in rural areas. Dr Gagandeep says that while a third wave is expected, it is unlikely to be “anything like the second”, unless there is a new variant.
Open educational institutions: Karnataka has begun priority vaccination of college and university students to enable the opening of higher education institutions. Rajasthan has announced that all schools will be opened on August 2. If parents and teachers are vaccinated, schools will be relatively safe for children.
Meghalaya seems to have reached a stage of stalemate, adrift in uncertainty and lacking in clear-cut strategy. There is passivity in data gathering and analysis, piecemeal decision-making and scant progress towards vaccination goals. At this rate, the human costs will gather momentum quickly and a tsunami of shadow pandemics will overtake the Covid wave.