The verdict is crystal-clear. The BJP is here to stay, the Congress is no competitor; the AAP has taken a big step forward and regional dynasts have taken a beating. The AAP, which retained Delhi in successive polls, managed to get one more state – Punjab — under its banner. The BJP that triumphed in four of the five states where assembly polls took on the form of a mini-general election has reasons to cheer in a different way too. These results will symbolically give it the moral courage to try and retain power at the Centre even after the 2024 general elections. The broader implication is also that, with these victories, the upcoming Presidential elections will be a cakewalk for the BJP. The aspiring stalwarts in the opposition as also Bihar’s Nitish Kumar who all hoped to have a go at the Rashtrapati Bhavan can beat a retreat.
It will be tempting to analyze whose victory it was in Uttar Pradesh and elsewhere too. The role played by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in expanding the BJP base even during Covid times through a series of welfare steps cannot be brushed under the carpet. But, the UP assertion is principally the victory of chief minister Yogi Adityanath. This is bound to raise his national stature within the BJP to the discomfiture of Modi himself. To Yogi’s credit, there was no anti-incumbency wave in evidence. If there was one, it was perhaps limited to Muslims. The Backward Class fortress has been split between the Yadavs and others; and the Dalits on their own could only split the votes further – which was Advantage BJP. Mayawati, like Akhilesh, can keep licking the wounds of her repeated defeats. The consolidation of the Yadavs and the Muslims, to a large extent, did not help the SP put up a strong fight with the BJP. Its alliance with pro-farmer-Jat RLD proved futile. As much for farmer power! The BSP was relegated to one seat and the Congress two. They both failed to impress and it will take a while for these two parties to resurrect themselves from the ashes.
The Congress had hoped for Punjab, Goa and Manipur — and Uttarakhand too, where the BJP had changed its CMs with rare frequency. The next rounds involving Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat might help the Congress try and reassert itself. The regional satraps, other than Arvind Kejriwal, are obviously shocked though the NPP too did well in Manipur. Significantly, the attempts to have a regional dynastic front have received a huge set-back.
