By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Only a few days after the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) alerted that extreme heat was gripping large parts of India and Pakistan impacting hundreds of millions of people in one of the most densely populated parts of the world, the images of land surface captured by INSAT 3D, Copernicus Sentinel 3 and a NASA satellite indicated that land surface temperature over pockets of northwest India reached 55 degree Celsius and even crossed 60 degree Celsius over some pockets.
This unprecedented rise in temperature was not even expected by the scientists observing the climate change across the world, that too so soon. As for India, the Director General of India Meteorological Department (IMD) M Mohapatra has said that the data should not be trusted before conducting ground verification. “Satellite observations are taken from 36,000 km away from the surface. They can be misleading if not verified. The record highest land temperature was taken in Rajasthan which was 52.6 degree C. This data can create fear and panic so we should act responsibly,” he said.
DG IMD’s statement may have some validity on the scale of temperature as indicated by the several satellites, still the extreme heat conditions are still impacting millions of people which has been exacerbated by the electricity and water crisis which were the result of the extreme heat wave conditions.
Though the images of satellites indicated the surface temperature, not the air temperature, people in general were able to withstand it. Even then the atmospheric temperatures in many places in north India were in the range of 40 – 47.2 degree Celsius, which is considered very high.
That is why the Centre has issued advisories to the states to monitor the heatwave conditions and review the health emergency preparedness for any eventualities. Which will obviously not work due to the power crisis across the country coupled with several other crises such as availability of potable water.
India needs more than mere advisories. The national meteorological and hydrological departments are said to be working closely with health and disaster management agencies to roll out health action plans in the present situation but these are too little to successfully tackle the situation.
Heatwaves have multiple and cascading impacts not just on human health, but also on ecosystems, agriculture, water, energy supplies and even key sectors of the economy. WMO has always been emphasizing on multi-hazard planning so that the services may reach the most vulnerable, but India’s efforts are nowhere compared to the challenge we are facing now. IMD had said on April 28 that maximum temperatures reached 43-46 degree Celsius in widespread areas and the intense heat will continue until May 2. Such information is given every year, along with the subsequent electricity, water, and other crises. However, after little showers it is forgotten on the government level along with the need of a comprehensive plan of action. And year after year, we face the same crisis, exacerbating with passage of time.
It is premature to attribute the extreme heat solely to climate change, WMO have said. However, it is consistent with what we expect in a changing climate. Heatwaves are more frequent and more intense and starting earlier than in the past. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in its Sixth Assessment Report, said that heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent in South Asia this century.
The Union Ministry of Earth Sciences has recently issued a document which says that the frequency of warm extremes over India has increased during 1951-2015, with accelerated warning trends during the recent 30 years period 1986-2015. Significant warning is observed for the warmest day, warmest night and coldest night since 1986. The pre-monsoon heatwave frequency, duration, intensity and areal coverage over India are projected to substantially increase during the twenty-first century.
India recorded its warmest March on record, with an average maximum temperature of 33.1 degree Celsius or 1.86 degree Celsius above the long term average. Heatwaves do occur in April but are less common, but May is usually the month of excessively high temperatures.
However, the satellite images recording the surface temperature goes beyond all assessment, since 60 degree Celsius means even melting of roads and several other infrastructure, what to say about the catastrophe it may bring to all living beings including humans. It should be noted that on April 29, the surface temperatures were recorded by the satellites in absence of cloud cover and 10:30 AM. It has been claimed by satellite scientists that the measurements were accurate. As per the European Space Agency the surface temperature in Jaipur and Ahmedabad reached 47 degree Celsius while the hottest temperatures recorded southeast and southwest of Ahmedabad with maximum land surface temperatures of around 65 degree Celsius.
Obviously the data is unprecedented, and India urgently needs to plan something else than what is already in place. Only heat health action plans would not be sufficient. India has established a national framework for heat action plan through the National Disaster Management Authority which coordinates a network of state disaster response agencies and city leaders to prepare for soaring temperatures and ensure that everyone is aware of heatwave Do’s and Don’ts. It provides only limited relief.
India needs large scale forestation and implementation of measures against climate change at such an unprecedented speed as the unprecedented level of rise in temperature that has struck the country. The rise in surface temperature could push up the entire atmospheric temperature in a very short time. India must run the race against climate change now to avoid the impending catastrophe. (IPA Service)