UNITED NATIONS, July 11: India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country next year, according to a report prepared by the United Nations on Monday which said that the world population is forecast to reach eight billion by mid-November 2022.
The World Population Prospects 2022 by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, said that the global population is projected to reach eight billion on November 15, 2022.
The global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, having fallen under one per cent in 2020.
The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the world’s population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050.
It is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100.
“This year’s World Population Day (July 11) falls during a milestone year, when we anticipate the birth of the Earth’s eight billionth inhabitant. This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognise our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespan and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
“At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another,” he added.
The report said that “India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country during 2023”.
The world’s two most populous regions in 2022 were Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, with 2.3 billion people, representing 29 per cent of the global population, and Central and Southern Asia, with 2.1 billion, representing 26 per cent of the total world population.
China and India accounted for the largest populations in these regions, with more than 1.4 billion each in 2022.
More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
“Disparate population growth rates among the world’s largest countries will change their ranking by size: for example, India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023,” the report said.
According to the report, India’s population stands at 1.412 billion in 2022, compared to China’s 1.426 billion.
India is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, way ahead of China’s 1.317 billion people by the middle of the century.
Population growth is caused in part by declining levels of mortality, as reflected in increased levels of life expectancy at birth. globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost 9 years since 1990.
Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.2 years globally in 2050.
Life expectancy at birth for women exceeded that for men by 5.4 years globally, with female and male life expectancies standing at 73.8 and 68.4, respectively.
A female survival advantage is observed in all regions and countries, ranging from 7 years in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.9 years in Australia and New Zealand.
The share of the global population at ages 65 and above is projected to rise from 10 per cent in 2022 to 16 per cent in 2050.
At that point, it is expected that the number of persons aged 65 years or over worldwide will be more than twice the number of children under age 5 and about the same as the number under age 12. (PTI)
