By H. Srikanth
Bharat Jodo Yatra has been attracting national attention. By raising vital issues affecting the masses, Rahul Gandhi is winning over the hearts of the youth, women and minorities. Thousands of people waiting on the roads for hours to have a glimpse of Rahul show his growing popularity. When the padyatra began, the BJP national leaders scoffed at him and questioned its purpose and relevance. But seeing the increasing public attention that the yatra is drawing, BJP top leaders are now avoiding making controversial remarks. Interestingly, barring Shard Pawar of the NCP who welcomed the yatra, other non-BJP opposition leaders chose to remain silent. There is no doubt that every leader and party in India would assess the likely impact of the possible resurgence of Congress on their political fortunes. Apart from social media, a section of national media started giving adequate space to the yatra in their news bulletins and orchestrated discussions. A couple of TV anchors, who were with the government till the other day, began questioning the BJP leaders about inflation and jobs. This one month of Bharat Jodo campaign has brought some changes in people’s perception about leadership of the Congress party. But are these new developments enough to predict the victory of Congress in the General Elections, 2024? It is still premature to conclude that way. The reasons are many.
In politics, popularity matters. But it alone is no guarantee for electoral victory. Over the years, under the leadership of Modi and Shah, BJP has mastered the art of winning the elections. BJP has built a formidable organisational network across the nation – from metropolis to remote villages. It is no more a party of the banias. It made dent among the OBCs, STs and to some extent even among the dalits. The party has immense money power and corporate media support. Being in power at the centre and in several states, the BJP has gained control over the police, bureaucracy, and other public institutions. By keeping the corporate sector in good humour, the party could ensure continuous flow of funds through electoral bonds and other mechanisms. The party has the blessings of RSS and other Hindutva organisations whose cadres are ever ready to work as volunteers to create a political and ideological environment conducive to the ruling regime.
At one time the Congress party enjoyed some such advantages. But being out of power at the centre and in many states, the Congress party organization has become weak. A series of mistakes that it committed dissipated its traditional mass base among the SCs, STs and minorities. Marred by factional fights, corruption, and conflicts over leadership, the party became rudderless and lost the confidence of the rich and the poor alike. Siding with the ruling regime, the corporate media carried on a systematic campaign to vilify Congress and projected Rahul Gandhi as a Pappu, who is unfit for politics. The Congress party tasted defeat in elections after election. Even in Goa and Madhya Pradesh where the party emerged as the single largest party, it failed to form governments, as the elected representatives fell prey to enticements and threats, and ditched the party and its leadership. In some states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, regional and caste-based parties became more powerful than the Congress party. In these states, for its existence, Congress had to play a second fiddle to regional parties. What was worse, instead of taking on BJP’s Hindutva ideology by horns, Congress leaders toyed with soft Hindutva to win over the Hindu voters. All these mistakes or failures of the Congress party have led to its marginalization. No padyatra can help rebuild Congress, unless the leaders address its own lapses.
In the changed political scenario, Congress may come back to power only by building political alliances with other opposition parties. But for the others to take the Congress seriously, the party should win elections and form governments at least in six, seven states in India before 2024 general elections. There is prospect of Congress coming back to power in states like Karnataka, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh and even Madhya Pradesh. Apart from winning new states, Congress should remain in power in Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. If Congress could form governments in some of these states, the regional parties in bigger states like UP, Bihar and Maharashtra would take Congress a little more seriously. Congress party has a stable alliance with DMK in Tamilnadu and there is the possibility of electoral alliances with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Samajwadi Party, National Conference, NCP and Thackeray’s faction of Shiv Sena. Already marginalized mainstream left parties like CPI and CPI (M) oppose the Congress party in Kerala and Tripura, but they will support Congress in other states.
However, some opposition parties are averse to the idea of having any understanding with Congress. Some like BJD in Orissa go with the BJP alliance. Parties like Telugu Desam (TDP), Mayawati’s BSP and Jagan’s Party YSRCP do not want to antagonize Modi’s government and play a safe game. But others like Aam Admi Party (AAP), Trinmool (TMC), and Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) oppose the BJP’s rule. But these parties view the Congress Party also as an enemy. In the states where they are in power, they try to marginalize the Congress party and advocate the need for fighting both BJP and Congress. There is little chance of these parties accepting any pre-poll alliances with the Congress party. Of course, if the BJP led alliance fails to win majority seats in the 2024 elections, these parties may lend support to the Congress led alliance at the national level.
Finance is another obstacle. Congress was considered once as a faithful party of the Indian monopolies. But after the consolidation of BJP, the corporate have shifted their support to Modi’s regime. Although they may not be comfortable with Hindutva politics, the corporate are quite happy with Modi’s government’s economic policies. Special favours that Modi government showers on a couple of leading monopolies are no doubt detested by a section of the leading Indian industrialists. However, the corporate are hesitant to shift their support, as they are not sure of the ability of any opposition party to guarantee a stable government that protects its interests. It is not in the interest of the corporate to favour any alliance of the regional parties, where each leader assumes that he or she is a PM material. As an alternative to BJP, they can only think of the Congress party, provided the party could muster adequate support at the national level. The corporate sector is observing Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra keenly. One should take note of positive representation of the padyatra in a section of the corporate media and also Adani’s offer of sixty five thousand crore rupees investment in Rajasthan from this angle. No party will assume political power at the centre without the support of the corporate sector.
The likelihood of Congress coming back to power depends on many ifs and buts. It is a fact that Modi-Shaw’s charisma has faded a bit in the post-Pandemic India. The growing inequalities, unemployment and price rise have dented the legitimacy of the BJP government. Modi still has lakhs of ardent followers, whom others call ‘andh bhakts’. Steeped in hatred against the minorities, these sections claiming to be Hindu nationalists, would stand by Modi on all occasions. But we also see today neutral citizens getting uneasy with the divisive politics of Hindutva and looking forward to a viable alternative. Bharat Jodo Yatra is attracting these sections of voters who view price rise and unemployment as more important than the issues of Mandir and Masjid. But that should not make Congress complacent. The Congress party should never underestimate the power of Narendra Modi. Remember how effectively he used Phulwama attack in 2019 and whipped up national sentiments to the party’s advantage. Anything can happen a few months before the General Elections 2024 – another terrorist attack, a communal riot, a war with neighbour, some Krishna Janmabhoomi movement, or showering of freebies for the masses. The BJP’s arsenal is filled with a variety of weapons for meeting different eventualities. Will Rahul led Congress be able to neutralize its adversary? Only time will tell.