By Shivaji Sarkar
Nine states, 350 Lok Sabha seats, reaching the marginalized communities is the goal of the BJP in 2024. It’s a tall order but the party, RSS cadres and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have the capability to do it. They have created an organizational structure that is in a 24×7 election campaign mode. The strong cadre of the party and its coordination or the repository of leadership in the RSS is its strength. It has a thinking set-up that continuously re-strategizes its working mode to capture seats, more seats and change government policies accordingly.
Contrary to the opposition charges of being reckless, the BJP takes every step in a calculated manner including even how it has to raise its noise level, a successful tool to drown the voices in the Opposition. It helps to keep the Opposition off the public mind and penetration in the people’s perception becomes easier. That makes it a little callous about its approaches. Rabble rousers do the rest. Deviation from standard protocol is an effective tool to carry forward its vijay yatra even in the portals of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The chairs have moved away from their standard format of being neutral in Parliament to acting for the ruling party. Unlike some of the previous Speakers, who even quit their party membership officially to have a semblance of neutrality, here there is no pretence. It is not different. Those who were neutral also had been soft towards the ruling group.
The Opposition has seemingly accepted disciplining by the Speaker Om Birla or Deputy Chairman Harivansh Narayan Singh. The Houses function with the opposition demurring outside. It serves the ruling party and it does not mind switching off the mikes.
Managing the House has been easy. Digital presentation of replies makes it easier to keep noise against at a low level helping the treasury benches to get its work done smoothly. In the open fields too it tries to get over the voices to carry forward its goal.
The Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY) of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has shaken but not rattled it. It makes its moves sharper as the January 16 road show of about 700 metres exemplify. In the party’s perception Modi has got the mileage more than the Long Rahul March has achieved. A simple stroke has put the achievements of the Government to the fore of everyone. Party men wonder at the calculated mechanism that makes it achieve more with less effort.
This is what gives the BJP confidence to win 350 seats, from the present 303 of its own, to form a one-party government with minimal allies. That is why Modi has given the call to penetrate the Muslim minorities. If a small section of the Hindus move away from the party at the hustings, it is keen on making it up with Muslim and other community votes, who so far have not been its voters. It is perceived that about 2 percent Muslims even now vote for the BJP. But it wants to multiply that with more pasmanda -backward – Muslim votes numbering about 14 crore as per 2011 census. The new modern mosque at Ayodhya may show its friendly face to the Muslims.
Many smaller tribes, caste groups and farming classes are not its voters. If they join the BJP, votes may go up from 22 crore of a total of 91 crore in 2019. About 7 to 10 crore new voters join the electoral list every five years. Even half of it can do wonders to increase its tally in a 100 crore electoral college.
So is the BJP not bothered about the Congress whimper? The BJP and its parent body are careful. They have never ignored the Opposition. They know how to tackle and splinter it. Its masterstroke of withdrawing the three farm bills are testimony of how it confused the agitating farmers to act at cross purposes giving the Party an edge in the supposed western UP stronghold of the farmers. Already it has announced free food dole to continue till 2024 polls.
In a battered Gujarat, its well-oiled machinery in a fizzy state managed to cast 16 lakh votes, two hours after the polling time. A weak Congress could not match the “forward thinking”, as the party men describe, move to match it, in Congress’ perspective of winning elections. If AAP helped cut Congress votes and help the BJP, that again is a folly of the Congress. To quote RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat “Hindus are at war and aggression is natural.” The BJP is aggressive and the splintered Opposition is yet not a match.
Among the nine states going to polls this year, the BJP is in power in Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tripura and it’s a part of the ruling coalition in Nagaland and Meghalaya. Mizoram is friendly enough. It feels NE is easy to manage except to some extent Tripura. The other five states Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka would see sharp barbs and surprise moves from the BJP.
The Congress is in power in Rajasthan and Chhhattisgarh where it would face a tough challenge, however it is not easy to put up a fight in the North East, except some feeble attempts in Tripura.
But voting records also show that the BJP strike rate in terms of seats is lower than its Lok Sabha performance. Madhya Pradesh is a post-poll maneuver and Telangana polls are likely to be triangular.
Despite that possibly as BJP president Nadda says it would sail through and capture most of 160 LS seats that are not with it. Intense electioneering has already started even before the Delhi National Executive Council meeting. The Opposition has yet not even strategized.