By Tirthankar Mitra
Even after Pradyot Kishor Manikya Debbarma, chief of the most powerful party of the tribals in Tripura Tipra Motha (TM) sought to carve out a separate state from Tripura, none of the leaders of the major political parties contesting the state Assembly elections have dared to label him a separatist. For the man is “bubagra” (king) to whose rallies the tribals flock to by the thousands. He is the only leader in Tripura who is challenging Home Minister Amit Shah in terms of attendance in poll rallies before the elections in the state on February 16.
As the border state goes to test the people’s will next Thursday, Debbarma may emerge as the kingmaker in a closely fought electoral battle. Stated to have personal relations with Union Home Minister Amit Shah to former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee and top CPI(M) leaders as well, he is now the man to watch out for.
Debbarma has an unquestioned hold on 19 tribal communities of the state. In the terms of a poll strategist these communities together form 30 per cent of the state’s population and are the deciding factor in 20 reserved seats out of 60 in the state Assembly.
In the State Assembly, the BJP has 33 legislators, Indigenous People Front of Tripura has four, while the CPI(M) has 13 and Congress one representative. The rest of the seats are vacant.
Against this backdrop, Debbarma is in no way another former royal seeking votes invoking the allegiance of the men and women whose forefathers had once bowed in reverence before his ancestors. The political heavyweight is the face of the TIPRA Motha party he floated two years ago.
And Debbarma too does not make much of his princely background. In the rallies he addresses he comes out as the boy next door. He mimics Prime Minister Narendra Modi and even his own party functionaries drawing giggles and cheers from the crowd.
Underscoring his common man image, Debbarma’s rallies are sans chairs and sofas for the speakers including himself. He stands on the podium or on the ground. The Motha is riding on a demand of tribal autonomy. The Manikya dynasty scion Debbarma is the most visible face of it. Debbarma’s political rivals are only too aware of it. Except the BJP, none of the other political parties have taken him on openly.
Two years ago, Tripura had more than eight parties championing the tribals’ rights. Now it is Motha and Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) is in alliance with BJP, its 2018 ally.
Debbarma once headed the State Congress unit. But he left it over differences on Citizens Amendment Act (CAA) and ended setting up Motha. He had accurately sensed the mood of the people. Motha swept the tribal council polls in 2021 riding the Greater Tipraland demand. It is now contesting in 42 seats. This includes 22 constituencies outside of 20 Scheduled Tribe seats.
How come such a potential matchwinner is without an electoral ally is the question which puzzles political commentators at first. The alliance talks with BJP, CPI(M) and Congress hit a wall after an agreement in writing on Greater Tipraland was sought by Debbarma.
None of these political outfits can afford to sign on the dotted lines stating their assent on an issue which can backfire on them. After all, the political compulsions of these parties in the other non- tribal part of the state turned out to be a stumbling block in having the Motha as a poll partner.
Moreover, Debbarma’s political rivals point out that an alliance with Motha in the state Assembly election may not be such a good idea. Unlike 2021 Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council elections, tribal areas in Assembly constituencies are spread across the state and scattered over the constituencies.
Given the memories of violent clashes, the non-tribals are not keen on the idea of Greater Tipraland. It is most likely that Motha will not have many takers in the non-tribal areas.
If this school of thought is anything to go by, then the Motha will not be scripting the same tale of success as it did in the TTADC elections. The rationale of not allying with it is thus justified by the principal political outfits.
But another picture emerges as one reads between the lines. Sounds placating to the Motha have been emanating from the Congress, CPI(M) and Trinamool Congress. The BJP is also aware of the importance of tribal votes in the Tripura Assembly elections. Party chief JP Nadda has reeled out promises to woo the community.
Though Union Home Minister, Amit Shah has accused Motha of having struck a deal with CPI(M) and Congress, some Tripura watchers feel Shah and Nadda are playing out a balancing act in the event they have to work out a post-poll formula of sharing the government. BJP leadership has kept its communications open with Pradyot. So is the position with the rival Left-Congress alliance and Trinamool Congress. Meanwhile, Debbarma continues to count his chickens; it remains to be seen whether they will be hatched.’
For BJP, the stake in Tripura poll is the biggest among the three North Eastern states going to the polls in the first phase this month. BJP cannot afford to lose Tripura since this is the only state out of three where it is ruling as the main party. In Meghalaya and Nagaland, BJP is a junior partner of the NDA. In Meghalaya, the alliance has broken and BJP is fighting alone. So, the Union Home Minister is again visiting Tripura on February 12 and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on February 13. Both of them want to impart a mega wave among the Tripura electorate in the last days of the campaign. The results on March 2 will indicate whether BJP’s last ditch efforts will succeed. (IPA Service)