By Bhogtoram Mawroh
Elections in Meghalaya have ended and despite facing massive pressure from its own allies the National Peoples’ Party emerged as the single largest party getting 26 seats. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which had got the Union Minister Amit Shah and the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaign in the state could win only two seats. During the campaign the BJP was one of NPP’s most vocal critic with Amit Shah describing the NPP-led MDA government as the most corrupt government in the country. AL Hek, who won from Pynthorumkhrah told Rajdeep Sardesai in an interview for India Today that he would advise the BJP not to ally with the NPP if called upon. It seems the party high command in Delhi has ignored both Amit Shah and AL Hek by deciding to support the NPP-led coalition. Both are seasoned politicians and this loss of face will not matter in the long run. In politics friends and foes are not forever.
With BJP pledging their support to the NPP the tally went up to 28 which became 30 with the addition of two independent MLAs, viz., Kartush R Marak from Baghmara and Remington Gabil Momin from Rambrai Jyrngam. In a 59 seats assembly this gives the NPP-led coalition a simple majority of 51%. Effectively they can do without any new MLA joining the coalition till the Sohiong by poll takes place when the equation might change again. Suddenly news broke that two MLAs of the Hills State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP), viz., Methodius Dkhar and Shakliar Warjri have pledged their support to the NPP-led coalition taking the number to 32. This meant that irrespective of the results in the upcoming Sohiong by poll NPP will continue to enjoy majority in the Assembly.
Defection is a regular feature of Meghalaya politics and the news while amusing was not totally unexpected. Both Methodius Dkhar and Shakliar Warjri knew that the NPP-led coalition does not need any new MLA but will welcome any to improve its number in the house. If they did not move soon, others might pledge their support and they will lose their shot at getting cabinet seats. Also they can always make the argument that it’s better to be in the Government so that they help their constituencies more effectively than being in the opposition. Ultimately did the people of Mawthadraishan and Mawshynrut not vote for them to bring development to their respective areas? So, what they did was for the benefit of their constituencies and no one has the right to judge them except for their supporters. The latter will do so next election when they can choose not to vote for them if they are unhappy with the decision.
The decision to defect however led to outbreak of protests from the pressure groups that saw it as a betrayal. Effigies of Methodius Dkhar and Shakliar Warjri were burned and the former’s office was attacked. There are two reasons for the anger: firstly, it is claimed that NPP is a highly corrupt party; and secondly, the pressure groups want a Khasi Chief Minister which, they reason, can only come from a non-NPP government. In all of this it is surprising that many seem to have forgotten that the UDP, HSPDP and PDF (People’s Democratic Front) were also part of the NPP-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance that ruled the state from 2018 to 2023. The charge of corruption applies to them as well. They can argue that even while in Government they continually raised the issue of corruption. However, the fact that they complained but never withdrew their support to pave the way for a non-corrupt Government (?) makes that argument hollow and dishonest. So the issue of corruption is just eyewash to claim fake moral authority. The issue of having a Khasi Chief Minister is however different.
DD Lapang was the last Khasi Chief Minister holding the office from 13 April 2009 to 19 April 2010. He was then followed by Mukul Sangma and then Conrad Sangma, both Garo. So in a state where more than half of the State’s indigenous populations are Khasi-Jaintia there is a majoritarian demand that it’s high time the Chief Minister should be a Khasi. But this is not how democracy works. In a democracy those who win the highest number of seats form the Government. NPP has done that. With NPP doing very well in the Garo region but not so much in the Khasi-Jaintia region Conrad Sangma has got the right to be the Chief Minister and not Prestone Tynsong, a Khasi. Acceding to the demand will also create a wrong precedent for the future. Will the Khasi-Jaintia reciprocate if the Garo make a similar demand in the future?
The other problem which seems to have missed the attention of most is that even if the two MLAs from HSPDP come back and the non-NPP group wins the Sohiong by poll they will still not have majority. The best case scenario is that it will be 50:50 which opens the possibility for President’s rule and re-election. Will the non-NPP group MLAs be willing to go for re-election? So a non-NPP government is only possible if they can create defections from the NPP-group. Apart from being difficult and a hypocritical move the only possibility available is asking the independent MLAs to change camps. But both of the independent MLAs are Garo who will need to be convinced of the need for a Khasi-Jaintia Chief Minister instead of someone from their own community. Still even if that is possible there is another hurdle.
The biggest surprise thrown by the 2023 elections is the emergence of Voice of People’s Party (VPP) led by Ardent Miller Basaiawmoit who after losing in the 2018 assembly elections left HSPDP to start his own party. It won four seats and the performance on the ground shows that it will do well in the upcoming local MDC elections as well. Fighting on the issue on anti-corruption it was able to generate a lot of interest among the electorate. Corruption maybe the catchphrase used officially but its core ideology is that of pro-jaidbyrneiw or soil of the soil politics. The speech made by Ardent Basaiawmoit in Mothprhan where he bemoaned that Khasi boys moving about on their own in Jailroad, Police Bazar, Polo and Laban cannot act like they are in their own land (jinglong trai ha ri lajong) reveals the dominant ideology of the party. To be fair to him he did qualify it by saying he is not trying to incite people to discriminate against anyone but is just telling the truth. People on the ground knew the ideology of the party and in fact decided to vote for it in large numbers because of it. The ideology again reappears in the list of demands released by the party for entering into an alliance for forming a new government. It is this list of demands that will be the stumbling block, two demands in particular.
The first demand in the list is zero tolerance on corruption, a popular demand and a reasonable one. But since UDP, PDF and HSPDP were in previous corrupt NPP-led government does joining a group in which any or all of the three these parties belong not against the ideology of VPP? But let’s assume that the issue of having a Khasi-Jaintia Chief Minister is bigger than that of corruption and they do decide to come together, the demand in the list of reviewing the State Reservation Policy will be another sticking point. The review of existing 40:40 formula is meant to give more shares to the Khasi-Jaintia because of their larger population share. Will the Congress and TMC (All India Trinamool Congress) who have candidates from the Khasi-Jaintia region as well the Garo region accept such a demand? Will UDP which wants to expand into Garo Hills also accept the demand? And without the Congress, TMC and UDP can a non-NPP government be formed? But if VPP compromises on this issue as well, what is left for the party to hold on to? They would have betrayed on the issue of corruption and that of jaidbynriew as well. But without the four MLAs of VPP is a non-NPP government possible? Or is this all a farce and everyone is just after power?
The elections are over. People have given their mandate. It may not be to everyone’s liking but that’s how democracy works. I voted against the NPP and BJP but my candidate lost. I have accepted it and I am moving on. I would request others to do the same.
(The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not reflect in any way his affiliation to any organization or institution)