The assembly elections in Karnataka will be a hotly contested one with both the ruling BJP and the Congress party running somewhat neck and neck – and the results will have major implications for national politics. With the EC announcing the poll schedule this week, the May 10 elections are more important for the BJP because this is the only state in the south where the party has enjoyed power. A loss this time would mean a total washout for it in an entire region consisting of five states and a Union Territory. For the Congress, Karnataka offers high hopes for the party to revive its lost fortunes at the national level and gain a much-needed moral strength for the 2024 LS polls.
Curiously, the opinion polls released shortly after the poll schedule declaration gave a 57 per cent popular support for the Congress party, signifying a strong anti-incumbency mood. The BJP had not got a majority in the last assembly polls too. It manipulated the assembly strength later and grabbed power from the Congress-JD-S alliance led by HD Kumaraswamy. This time, available indications are that the Congress and the JD-S have the capacity to upset the BJP applecart in decisive ways. In fact, many things went wrong for the BJP during its present tenure in Karnataka. BS Yeddiyurappa was removed from the chief minister’s post after massive allegations about his “corrupt” ways and a penchant to keep his two sons on both his sides to broker deals. This was more than what the BJP could chew even as Yeddiyurappa was the poster boy for the powerful Lingayat community in state politics. Basavraj Bommai, who was the replacement for the CM’s post, still has lesser clout than Yeddiyurappa.
The going for the Congress, if it wins the elections, will not be easy either. Siddaramaiah seeks to get back to the CM’s post on the proven strength of the SC votes – forming around 35 per cent – which is formidable. Another contender, DK Shivkumar, from the forward Vokkaliga community is equally powerful though he carries a tag of corruption. The Congress got a good response to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra and the anti-incumbency factor is sure to add to its vote-fetching capacity this time. The JD-S with substantial support in certain sectors like Old Mysuru too could be depended on for a good anti-BJP push. Certain last-minute decisions to woo the SCs and BCs in the state by the Bommai government as also the “double-engine” development promise by the party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi might give some advantage to the BJP at the hustings.