With less than a year to go for the Parliament Polls, the countdown would soon begin for a verdict on the nation’s fate for the next five years. With Narendra Modi leading the BJP-led NDA government through two consecutive five-year terms, there is no evidence yet of an anti-incumbency mood. This is significant in terms of the poll outcome, granted that no fresh issue crops up now. At the same time, the positives are there for all to see, principally on the economic front – where GDP growth stands at 7.2 per cent, more than the government’s own projected growth figure. If the national economy is in good health, half the electoral game is won, but this with a caveat that the “India Shining” slogan of the BJP failed to click in the 2004 general elections. The feel-good factor could be all pervasive but a multiplicity of other factors count too, to pull the mat from under the feet of incumbent governments. Social upheavals, for instance. Except for isolated instances as in Manipur now or for the farmer’s agitation in some north-Indian states a while ago, the overall scenario is perceived to be quiet now.
Clearly, a strategy adopted by Narendra Modi as prime minister was to tread a careful course and avoid confrontations. In situations like the farmer’s agitation, he simply cut and ran. Modi had faced serious odds as chief minister in 2002 when the Gujarat riots took place. The unprecedented level of bloodletting in the streets under his direct watch turned Modi into a villain. Yet, situations conspired to facilitate a political windfall for him. For sure, Modi learned his ropes through thick and thin. However, his careful approach now means no tough decisions during his two terms in Delhi. He avoided reforms on multiple fronts that should have strengthened the nation. Even the market reform he implemented – the GST – was a leftover baby of the UPA period.
The Modi dispensation however made major marks in infrastructure, exports and welfare. There is considerable momentum on the building of highways and reshaping of the down-in-the dumps railways sector. Modi’s Jan Oushadhi and several other welfare steps are of immense benefit to the poor. His initiatives like Make In India and Aatmanirbhar Bharat also made significant strides. The defence exports are at an all-time high of Rs 16,000 crore; a 10-time increase since 2016. This is in matching with the overall growth in exports of goods and services to the tune of $770 billion, registering a growth of 14 per cent over the previous year. Overall, feelings are that the Opposition is groping in the dark for issues to raise against the government.
