By Chiranjib Haldar
A recent report released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) warned of catastrophic changes in the course of rivers flowing through North East India. The assessment clearly rings warning bells for several rivers meandering through the Northeastern states. Since rivers in the Eastern Himalayas get less water input from glacial melt, the perennial nature of several rivers, the lifeline of inhabitants in areas dotting our northeastern states could be lost. The forecast may be a dampener to many but it predicts that Brahmaputra, Teesta and their tributaries, akin to their ilk in Hindu Kush Himalayas will witness an initial upsurge in stream flow followed by scarcity. States like Meghalaya, Mizoram and others already reeling under a paucity of natural water resources may bear the brunt.
The report ‘Water, Ice, Society and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya’ properly maps the impacts of the Asian mountainous cryosphere on water, biodiversity and society. Unprecedented and largely irreversible changes to the Hindu Kush Himalayan cryosphere, driven by increase in average global temperatures threaten billions.
Our policymakers need to prepare for the cascading impacts of climate change in the critical Brahmaputra biome among others, a freshwater resource to India’s North East. Urgent regional cooperation to structurally adjust to the aftereffects of an inevitable glacial melt and help communities adapt is now a priority. It is interesting to note that Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65 per cent faster between 2010 and 2020 than in the previous decade.
Northeast India is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on the Brahmaputra river. A majority of the population is engaged in natural resource-based activities. The abundant flow of the Brahmaputra and its tributaries are essential to the local economy and the livelihoods of millions dwelling in the region. Shrinking Himalayan glaciers on top of altering monsoon patterns and anthropogenic climate change portends to reduce river flow. This has implications for communities living along the river basin. As it is, destructive flooding along the Brahmaputra and its tributaries are a major challenge for people living in Northeast India.
The Brahmaputra River is usually subjected to severe bank erosion leading to the widening of the river, adding fluvial deposits, forming permanent islands or chars. Any change in the channel pattern of rivers and bankline shifts will impact agrarian communities the most. It is a common pattern in tracts of Assam, Tripura, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Arunachal that the erosion of fertile cultivable land leads to marginalisation of riverine dwellers increasing their poverty. This often leads to displacement and internal migration, clear offshoots to conflict and impoverishment. The hydrological alterations in the flow regimes of Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins leading to annual floods in Bangladesh have also wedged Northeastern India over the years.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres had earlier warned that the flow in major Himalayan rivers including Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, all critical for India, may get significantly reduced as glaciers and ice sheets are expected to recede in future due to global warming. In 2022, the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences informed the Lok Sabha that glaciers feeding the Ganga and Brahmaputra river basins were melting fast. According to the ministry, the mean retreat rate of the Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers was 14.9 to 15.1 metres per annum, which varied from 15.5 to 14.4 metres per annum in the Ganga and escalating 20.2 to 19.7 metres per annum in the Brahmaputra river basins. Hence, rivers in the region will get less glacial melt accumulation and are likely to be affected geologically having hazardous consequences for livelihood, ecosystems and sustainable living.
Changes in precipitation patterns and incessant reduction in river flow pose a challenge to rain drenched floodplain agriculture in the region, making it difficult for subsistence farmers to sustain their livelihoods. Climate change impact on floods and water availability thwart traditional livelihoods, agricultural crops and infrastructure, increasing human displacement and generating climate refugees in the region. A risk assessment of those affected in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh by climate change provides an important lesson for understanding the unequal distribution of benefits and losses as a corollary to climate change, an issue now debated in seminars as climate justice. A vast chunk of Assamese and Arunachal inhabitants have seen their largely sustainable agricultural livelihoods directly endangered by the impact of anthropogenic climate change on key water resources.
In the region’s fluvial context, the ICIMOD report neglects another crucial issue – the question of territoriality, land alienation and tribal syncretism. Rivers traverse diverse geographical areas inhabited by different ethnic communities. For example, the origin and course of the Barak river through three different districts in Manipur; Senapati, Tamenglong and Churachandpur – terrains dominated by Poumais, Zeliangrongs and Hmars respectively. Then the river profile changes to a sharp, almost complete right turn, entering Assam in the Cachar plains where different communities share its waters before it finally enters Bangladesh. In a region where ethnic boundaries and their claims over natural resources have resulted in decades of conflict and tussle, the impounding and reduction of water supply may compound tension and exacerbate into a confrontation.
We have witnessed in the past how skewed mega projects have led to a cliffhanger between the evicted communities migrating and settled riverine locals. In tandem with lower Himalayan glacial melts, the effort to develop multiple projects on the region’s rivers will increase manifold the risks and may not be the path to provide climate security to the people of Northeast India. The water paucity will peak in winters, resulting in weak monsoons and bleak agricultural output, the prime livelihood of the people of Northeast India. Further, any future climate change will alter the soil moisture quotient. Ultimately, it boils down to the wisdom whether investing insane amounts of exchequer funds in projects looming with uncertainty due to a changing climate is feasible and the right thing to do.
(Chiranjib Haldar is a commentator on Politics and Society.)