Shillong, August 28: The month started positively with a 5% surplus due to a wet July, but August saw a shift to a negative trend with an 8% overall deficit, reports Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
As per IANS, August’s monsoon is 30% below the long-term average, with South India experiencing particularly dry conditions. While the northwest received 7% above-normal rainfall, Central India (6% below normal), South Peninsula (16% below normal), and eastern regions faced deficient rainfall.
El Nino has escalated from ‘weak’ to ‘moderate,’ with a 66% probability of developing into a ‘strong’ event this year, according to US weather agencies.
Kharif sowing by August 25 is slightly higher (0.3%) than last year. Paddy cultivation area increased by 4.4% from last year, while pulses area remains 8.3% lower. Jute, cotton, and oilseed production is also down, but coarse cereals (1.1% YoY) and sugarcane (0.8% YoY) show positive trends.
Telangana’s abundant rainfall positively impacted rice sowing, but major rice-producing states like West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Bihar, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, and Assam faced deficits of 10% to 24%.
States with a 64% combined share, including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh, encountered deficient monsoons, adversely affecting pulse sowing and leading to a rise in pulse prices.
Pulses inflation has nearly doubled over five months due to lower rice and pulse sowing caused by deficient rainfall. Rice and pulses constitute 4.4% and 6% respectively in the overall CPI basket.
