Within days after the Election Commission announced the schedules for assembly polls in five states, it would appear that the nation’s reigning political establishment has received a knockout punch below its belt. The Congress is obviously in a mood to revitalize itself. A credible opinion survey in two principal states – Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh – has said the Congress and the BJP are running neck to neck. Several ground situations show the BJP might not be able to retain Madhya Pradesh and there is no more than a fifty-fifty chance of it grabbing power in Rajasthan. There is resentment against chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh within the BJP rank and file itself, and so too with Ashok Gehlot, though the latter does not seem to face an anti-incumbency sentiment in Rajasthan. The new generation of leaders in both MP and Rajasthan – principally Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Sinha – are hoping against hope that they get a chance to edge out Gehlot and Chouhan.
If the Congress wins MP, the first priority for CM’s post would be for seasoned Kamal Nath fielded by the party from Chhindwara. Chouhan meets with his match in television actor Vikram Mastal as Congress nominee in Budhni. Mastal had played the role of Hanuman in the famous Ramayana serial and remains popular. What the Congress seeks to project is a fight between Good and the Evil in Budhni to upset the BJP applecart there in the November 17 polls. Yet, the 58,000-margin that Chouhan got in his traditional turf last time would not be easy to erase. In Rajasthan, the BJP is yet to hint who its warhorse would be, or the likely chief minister.
If the BJP loses Madhya Pradesh and fails to win Rajasthan, a question is: with what face can PM Modi and the BJP approach the all-too-important 2024 Parliament polls. The Congress has already wrested Karnataka from the BJP, virtually uprooting the saffron establishment from the entire South in this year’s assembly polls there. If the Congress wins both MP and Rajasthan, there would be no looking back for the tricolour political establishment. This would end a season of total rout for the party and win it the wherewithal to fight the parliament polls. Money by the tonnes is the prime requisite to fight the parliament polls. But, without states or the Centre in its kitty, the Congress would find it difficult to oil its campaign machinery. If the big guns in business must fund it liberally, that can happen only if there is hope the Congress would seize power in Delhi. It is here that the five-state assembly polls assume additional significance.
