By Chiranjib Haldar
In the prelude to the 1989 general elections, Congress-sponsored billboards startled pedestrians with a query: How many prime ministers will a country have? The nation went berserk with the Bofors controversy. VP Singh’s Janata Dal spearheaded the anti-Congress front and an ebullient Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) cobbled in tandem to defeat the Rajiv Gandhi regime. Three and a half decades later, the wheel has come full circle. Only the crusaders have changed. The I.N.D.I.A bloc, instead of being a shot in the arm for an anti-BJP front, has been a blessing in the offing. It has actually strengthened the BJP-led NDA regime with a seeming coalition of regional satraps led by the Congress, having bloated further. And if the assembly poll outcomes were to measure any index of opposition unity, there is no fillip; it is a thumbs-down for its flagbearer, the Congress.
A southern silver lining for the grand old party notwithstanding, BJP’s consolidation in the heartland states may be a chronicle of loss foretold for the grand dame of Indian polity. The prelude to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls has pumped adrenalin to the BJP and been a knock on the chin for Congress. These reverses have only prompted many I.N.D.I.A allies to question the Rahul Gandhi-Mallikarjun Kharge duo’s prowess to lead the opposition slugfest. BJP’s bantamweight punches to the Congress in Chattisgarh which Bhupesh Baghel was expected to retain and steamrolling of Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh has only impeded the idea of I.N.D.I.A. For the BJP, a ragtag coalition of regional chieftains, though headed by the Congress, was enough to turn the I.N.D.I.A poll machinery into a non-starter.
The infighting in the anti-BJP coalition is prominent and starkly visible. Several allies, the Samajwadi Party, AAP and JD(U) are in the fray independent of the Congress. Nitish Kumar and Akhilesh Yadav are rabble rousing about how a domineering Congress is treating them shabbily. Allegations of Congress forsaking I.N.D.I.A’s interests only met with derision from the Gandhi family and indirectly helped the BJP. For the ruling BJP regime, any meeting of I.N.D.I.A partners would actually chip off the leverage enjoyed by the Congress so far. There are lessons for the BJP and the anti-Modi opposition. It is a shocker that trumpeting key issues incessantly fail to sway the electorate. Booster doses to a majoritarian ethic, protracted dereliction to the violent discord in Manipur, a blatant spur to crony and monopoly capitalism hardly cuts ice with the masses.
What is interesting is that the BJP had not projected chief ministerial candidates in the heartland states it won but aggressively campaigned on Modi’s guarantee and impetus. This is something that the saffron stalwarts have perfected as an effective armament against opposition parties. Thus, the usual dividends from a subterranean polarising rhetoric may increase as the 2024 general election approaches. A bolstered BJP would obviously march into the Lok Sabha polls by relying on its potent combination of welfarism and majoritarian triumphalism alias rewdis. Reclaiming lost territory especially in the south, riding piggyback on a rise in the BJP’s Telangana vote share, would be next on the party’s agenda.
The BJP wins because they do get their last mile delivery right; they are focused round the clock on winning elections. They deal sternly with intra party rivalry, they start planning for the next polls as soon as the current one is over. They probably have a booth level well-oiled electoral machinery plan in place for April-May 2024, while the Opposition is still squabbling amongst themselves. Politics is not a picnic of teddy bears though it may not be a last resort for scoundrels as the adage goes. If the I.N.D.I.A alliance or any supra-national nomenclature given to the opposition grouping don’t cobble in unison or get its act together, the BJP will obviously wallop the alliance’s stronghold. That would be the wherewithal of any regime eyeing its third consecutive stint.
There is no surprise in the current political landscape in India. We love our echo chambers. We love to fraternise as well as draw reasons and logic in tune with what we want the world to be. It isn’t just in India or in Indian politics; the shadow of a right-wing victory in Netherlands casts its silhouette on Europe. A whole gamut of anti-Israeli sentiments continues to overflow in many places. There is a mutual blindness to the other side’s presence at the cost of sanity. For the anti-BJP, it may be all about Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) fraud, religiosity and governance failure, irrespective of voting trends.
Even before 2014, the saffron citadel expanded by stitching caste alliances. The BJP may not be in dire need of long-term alliance partners; the party can consolidate its position with time-bound pre-poll alliances to venture into territories that entail a booster. The more fractured the opposition becomes on the road to the 2024 hustings, with multiple aspirants for the coveted top slot often at loggerheads, the easier it will be for the BJP to beat anti-incumbency and stride back to power. Whether this is complete tosh will be tested in the ensuing parliamentary elections. With a rainbow opposition still in disarray, throwing up too many claimants for prime ministership, the BJP will only hardsell Narendra Modi for his third stint and woo the electorate with both continuity and change.
(Chiranjib Haldar is a commentator on Politics and Society.)