Friday, May 31, 2024
spot_img

New AI model to predict Covid-19 variant waves early

Date:

Share post:

spot_img
spot_img

Shillong, January 4: Scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the US have developed a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) model that can predict early which SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to cause new waves of infection.

Current models used to predict the dynamics of viral transmission do not predict variant-specific spread.

The team led by Retsef Levi from MIT’s Sloan School of Management studied what factors could shape the viral spread based on an analysis of 9 million SARS-CoV-2 genetic sequences collected by the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) from 30 countries, along with data on vaccination rates, infection rates, and other factors.

The findings are published in the journal PNAS Nexus.

The patterns that emerged from this analysis were used to build a Machine Learning-enabled risk assessment model.

The model can detect 72.8 per cent of the variants in each country that will cause at least 1,000 cases per million people in the next three months after an observation period of only one week after detection.

This predictive performance increases to 80.1 per cent after two weeks of observation.

Among the strongest predictors that a variant will become infectious are the early trajectory of the infections caused by the variant, the variant’s spike mutations, and how different the mutations of a new variant are from those of the most dominant variant during the observation period.

“This work provides an analytical framework that leverages multiple data sources, including genetic sequence data and epidemiological data via machine-learning models to provide improved early signals on the spread risk of new SARS-CoV-2 variants,” said the researchers in the study.

While calling for more research, they noted that the modelling approach could potentially be extended to other respiratory viruses such as influenza, avian flu viruses, or other coronaviruses. (IANS)

spot_img
spot_img

Related articles

Stolen freedom of June 4, 2024

Editor, It was on March 2, 2023 that celebratory rejoicing filled the streets of Shillong. With all educational institutions...

Pakistan as villain

It’s often difficult to decipher the positions taken by Pakistani politicians vis-a-vis bilateral relations. They speak in one...

When Will the Matriarchs Crow?

By Patricia Mukhim Khasi women have grown up being told that they should not speak over men in any...

World No Tobacco Day 2024

By Dr. Caleb Harris We have witnessed a lot of action in the past few days, purportedly as...