A swift retaliation by Pakistan, to the January 16 missile attacks on a terrorist base by Iran, was only to be expected. Yet, an escalation of the present aerial offensives between pro-Shia Iran and pro-Sunni Pakistan looks unlikely. Both sides targeted only terror outfits. Pakistan needed to save its face after the Iranian missile attack on its soil, and more so as our neighbouring nation is set for the general elections in two months. The Iranian leadership seems to understand this as is evident from its low-key response to the Pakistani retaliation. This happens at a time when the geopolitical region extending up to Gaza is shaking in the context of the three-months-long Israel-Hamas war. The war killed over a thousand Israelis and around 25,000 Palestinians since October 7 last. The two Balochistan strikes have no direct link to the Israel-Hamas war. These aerial strikes were different in nature and targeted only the region/nation-specific terror outfits. Iran launched missile attacks on Sunni terrorist bases in Iraq and Syria earlier this month, all these however forming into a wider regional pattern.
Iran’s missile attacks on Sabz Koh village in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, killing two children, targeted Jaish al Adl, an Iranian terrorist group that operated from Pakistan soil. Two days later, Pakistan targeted Saravan in Iran’s Balochistan area with airstrikes, killing nine persons. Iran says these were not its nationals. Iran’s foreign minister stressed that Teheran respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan. Iran was obviously retaliating to a bomb attack some days ago in its Kerman province by Sunni terror outfits operating from Pakistan soil – which was cited as the “worst” terrorist attack in Iran in decades. Iran’s missile attacks were obviously inspired by the surgical strike India did in 2016 in PoK, and the IAF fighter jet bombing on Pakistan’s Balakot in 2019.
Fact of the matter is that Pakistan as a nation is bleeding due to several reasons. Its economy is in a shambles, its provinces like Balochistan and PoK are restive with separatist campaigns and terror outfits have made a mess of life all around. Its proximity to Afghanistan, another failed nation where militants and terrorists rule the roost, has only added to Pakistan’s woes. Pakistan turned into a breeding ground for terrorism with direct patronage of such outfits by its military establishment, which has overarching influence and powers on the governance system there. Politicians danced to the tunes of the generals. The military intelligence, ISI, directly funds terrorist outfits including the Kashmiri militants. By concerted efforts, India has managed to call the bluff of the generals in Rawalpindi by the 2019 IAF offensive that took place directly under their nose.
