Congress-aap alliance in Delhi another milestone in opposition politics
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Within 24 hours after the Congress-SP alliance became a reality in Uttar Pradesh on February 21, the INDIA bloc achieved another milestone in opposition politics on February 22, becoming stronger to take on the ruling BJP led by PM Narendra Modi. The Congress-AAP alliance for Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Goa, and Gujarat has considerably boosted the morale of the opposition and its political prospect in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election scheduled to be held in April-May 2024, much to the discomfort of the RSS-BJP clan.
Congress-AAP alliance is a major step forward, in the background of both the parties going solo in Punjab, which was projected by the RSS-BJP clan as an evidence of INDIA bloc falling apart, after announcement of TMC in West Bengal to contest all the seats alone without any alliance with Congress. Earlier, JD(U) in Bihar had deserted the INDIA bloc to join hands with BJP, while several leaders have also deserted the Congress and several others have been reported to likely join the BJP. The impact of all these was a sagging morale of the Opposition, which has just reversed this week, much to the chagrin of the RSS-BJP clan. Congress-TMC seat-sharing talks have been reported back on track again, which means only Bihar has witnessed a little loss to INDIA bloc so far due to Nitish Kumar’s final desertion and joining hands with BJP.
PM Narendra Modi has much to worry for such seat-sharing arrangements because it is potentially damaging to his prospects of returning to power for the third consecutive term despite undue hype of his easily winning 2024 Lok Sabha election. However, he knows how only a few months ago BJP had lost a Vidhan Sabha bye-election in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP’s political forte, only because Congress and SP contested in cooperation with each other. Even recently in the Chandigarh mayoral election Congress-AAP alliance ultimately won. BJP had rigged the mayoral election and declared BJP’ candidate winner, but Supreme Court of India finally declared INDIA bloc’s candidate the winner. These show that seat-sharing deals among INDIA bloc allies are potential hurdles in the way back to power for BJP and PM Narendra Modi, despite their dependence on corporate-Hindutva nexus.
There are seven Lok Sabha seats in the National Capital Territory Delhi. All of these were won by BJP in the Lok Sabha election 2019, when the Congress and AAP had contested separately. BJP’s vote share was 56.9 percent while INC’s 22.6 and AAP’s 18.2 per cent. There was a pro-BJP wave created after the Pulwama attack, due to which the party benefited by a 10.46 per cent swing in its favour. On the eve of Lok Sabha election 2024, there is no such strong wave.
The 2020 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election results show that BJP’s vote share suffered a considerable decline to 38.51 per cent, while AAP’s vote share surged to 53.52 per cent. INC’s share of votes was only 4.26 per cent. Municipal election 2022 in Delhi showed BJP’s vote share almost stagnant at 39.09 per cent, while AAP’s vote share was 42.05 per cent, and INC’s 11.68 per cent. If seen in this backdrop, it goes without saying that BJP’s support base in Delhi has considerably declined, and the Congress-AAP alliance can upset the BJP’s political applecart in Delhi. AAP will be contesting on 4, and Congress on 3 seats in Delhi.
In the Union Territory Chandigarh, under Congress-AAP alliance, the mayoral seat has already gone to AAP. Now, as per the latest deal, Congress is to contest the lone Lok Sabha seat there. BJP had won this seat in 2014 and 2019, but its share of votes declined from 42.20 per cent to 35.75 per cent. Vote share of Congress increased from 26.84 per cent to 28.48 per cent. Though AAP’s share of votes went down from 23.97 per cent in 2014 to merely 2.13 per cent in 2019, the latest Municipal Corporation election 2021 result shows that AAP’s vote share was 27.08 per cent. BJP’s vote share in CMC election was 29.30 per cent while INC’s share was 29.79 per cent. It is clear that Congress-AAP seat sharing deal has hazarded the BJP’s possibility of retaining the Chandigarh Lok Sabha seat.
Haryana has become one of the most politically sensitive states in the region on account of the ongoing farmers’ agitation. There are 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state and all of them were won by BJP in 2019. Farmers are now angry with the BJP government in the state that is using force against agitating farmers. BJP had bagged 58.02 per cent of votes as against 28.42 per cent of the Congress, however in the Vidhan Sabha election held after only a few months, BJP’s vote share declined to 36.49 per cent while Congress’ vote share remained almost stagnant at 28.08 per cent. BJP was able to form a government in alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s JJP which bagged 14.8 per cent of votes. During the last five years, farmers have been uneasy with both BJP and JJP, while AAP has slowly become stronger. Congress-AAP alliance in this backdrop, may do considerable damage to BJP’s possibility of retaining its seats in Haryana. AAP is expected to contest one seat and Congress 9 out of 10 in the state.
There is no deal in Punjab among Congress and AAP, but it does not make BJP’s prospect in the state better, barring Gurdaspur, which is influenced by the political situation in Himachal Pradesh. This time, even Gurdaspur seat has become difficult for BJP, due to adverse political wind blowing against PM Modi’s farm policies. There are 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab.
As per the Congress-AAP seat-sharing deal in Goa, both the parties are likely to contest one each. There are only two seats in Goa. In 2019, BJP and Congress had won one seat each with vote share of 51.19 and 42.92 per cent respectively. AAP’s vote share was 3.01 per cent. The political situation had changed considerably by the 2022 Vidhan Sabha election when BJP’s vote share declined to 32.5 percent while INC’s vote share also declined to 28.4 per cent. AAP’s vote share increased to 6.7 per cent. Congress-AAP alliance has put BJP in a difficult political situation.
In Gujarat Congress would be contesting 24 and AAP will be contesting on 2 seats. BJP had won all 26 seats in Lok Sabha election 2019. However, in the 2022 Vidhan Sabha election AAP had won 5 seats with a statewide vote share of 12.92 per cent. INC’s vote share was 27.28 per cent. BJP had bagged 52.50 per cent of votes, and in many of the seats it had less than 50 per cent of votes. Congress and AAP’s coming together is thus set to impact the electoral outcomes in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election.
Moreover, there are 18 states where AAP has registered its presence and increased its influence in the last five years. Congress-AAP understanding may have a positive impact on INDIA bloc’s electoral prospects, offering a tough task before PM Narendra Modi and BJP in protecting their political citadels. (IPA Service)