By Albert Thyrniang
The election bugle has sounded. The BJP has already announced the first list of 195 candidates for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. No surprise that the most prominent names are PM Narendra Modi and his deputy, Amit Shah. However, the juggernaut display in Gujarat and in other states is missing in the largest ‘Lower House state’, Uttar Pradesh. Apart from Modi none of the 79 seats has a contestant so far. The saffron party is clearly wary of the SP-Congress combine. To portray itself as a development oriented party, four controversial MPs, Parvesh Verma, Jayant Sinha, Ramesh Bidhuri and blast accused, Sadhvi Pragya Thakur are shown the door. Always in election mode the BJP is much ahead of the Election Commission of India.
Meghalaya is a shade smarter than the BJP, electorally. Long before the Delhi rulers made the maiden set of competitors public, here most parties had already named theirs. The only party which is still struggling to figure out who its candidate will be is ironically the BJP. South Shillong Legislator, Sanbor Shullai is publicly lobbying for Fenela Lyngdoh Nonglait for the Shillong constituency. The other parties are already heating up their campaign for their respective nominees. First among them all is the much talked about VPP which declared its candidates since June last year, nine months in advance, Dr Ricky AJ Syngkon is the choice of the most nascent party, The Congress believes Vincent Pala will emerge victorious for the record fourth time. The NPP’s bet is on Ampareen Lyngdoh to upset her former boss. The UDP has chosen the ex-HYC chief, Robert June Kharjahrin with the hope of edging out national parties. An independent, Lakhon Kma, NEHU’s Biochemistry professor has thrown himself in the ring. The TMC will resolve the Shillong conundrum depending on the situation in Tura.
For the western segment, Tura MP, NPP’s Agatha Sangma has no competition. The Congress has decided to put up the lone MLA, Saleng Sangma from Gambegre. In Tura too, for the BJP is still a mystery. The TMC is still hopeful that the Congress will opt out of the race as part of the I.N.D.I.A deal to take on the NPP/BJP jointly. No other candidate is expected to enter the fray in Garo Hills.
What are the prospects of the parties in our state? What do they stand on while they vie for their right to be Shillong’s and Tura’s spokespersons in the national capital? What are their planks for their campaigns? What are their ideologies? Whom will Meghalaya send to the Lok Sabha? Who will be the two MPs for the next five years?
Let us state upfront that the NPP will win the Tura seat. A tighter contest is expected only if the TMC and the Congress agree on a joint candidate. The Trinamool wishes the grand old party to direct Saleng to stand aside in favour of the I.N.D.I.A block formula. This arrangement will see Charles Pyngrope and company supporting their old friends from the Congress in the eastern region. Given the much publicised differences between the Meghalaya PCC chief, Vincent Pala and TMC leader, Mukul Sangma, not even the number one goal of defeating the commonest enemy, the BJP might lead to a patch up. Even if the TMC-Congress pact materialises, Congress leaders will be disgruntled and parts of the vote bank will line up for the NPP. Even if there is a TMC-Congress alliance, the final prediction is that the NPP has a better chance of winning the Tura seat. Next will come the TMC-Congress combine followed by the BJP. If the Congress goes it alone its position is third.
In Shillong, the Congress’ main ground is anti-BJP and pro secularism. It will position itself as the only party that is able to take on the BJP’s might nationally and the best party committed to secularism and peaceful coexistence of all religions where minorities too thrive. The declining party has already loudly appealed to all supporters of NPP, UDP, BJP, TMC and VPP to rally behind its tested candidate to add to the tally that will oppose the BJP tooth and nail. “For the sake of secularism, vote for us,” will be the Congress’ cry. The party will elucidate the vitiated atmosphere in the country and the instances of persecution of Christians in the last 10 years. The speakers at Congress’ rallies and election meetings will point to the threats Christians currently face in Assam. In case the INDI Alliance manages to topple the ‘communal’ BJP the fear psychosis will recede, will be the claim. These voices will resonate with the voters, no doubt.
The most popular party at this given point in history is the VPP. Its ‘unofficial song’ continues to make waves in the state captivating the young and the old. Others are rattled by its fame. Ampareen Lyngdoh foolishly cast slurs on the song accusing it of bringing disrepute to the Khasi society because, she alleges, the song eulogises the ‘panah and meinah’ (stepfather and step mother) culture. She even declared that step-fathers and step-mothers should not follow her. The NPP’s candidates were trolled on social media. Her anger against the song has alienated hundreds, if not thousands, of ‘Panah and Meinah’ in her constituency. The reputation of VPP is not only due to the hit song. Its firebrand leader, Ardent Miller Basaiawmoit led people to the street on the issue of job reservation policy and the sacking of Meghalaya Lokayukta officials who ‘were investigating corruption’ in the state. Advocating clean politics and taking anti-wasteful expenditure stance has brought dividends to the party, If the party draws crowds sans ‘Ha U Prah’ song and if voters vote on the basis of ideology and principles and not on emotion derived from ‘Kongdeng Kongnah’ the change for the better could be tangible. Otherwise when another more catchy election song comes about, crowds will then flock there.
The NPP will try to amplify its achievements and development drive. However, the BJP might counter that projects for the state have come from the centre. The VPP has already pointed several times that the cash for the infrastructural initiatives are through loans. It is the tax payers who will ultimately face the brunt while the government glorifies itself. The close nexus with the BJP is hard to draw enough voters as far as the MP election is concerned. The support of Agatha Sangma to CAA will feed on opponents to convince voters to stay away from the NPP. The rumours that the same Tura MP objected to the Khasi language being elevated to the 8th Schedule might also add to the disenchantment. The party, however, is confident because it secured the highest voter share in the last Assembly election and has the most number of MLAs and MDCs in the Shillong seat. Strengthening its base the party has lured legislators and councillors of other parties to its fold.
The UDP, with eight MLAs and 6 MDCs in KHADC is the next biggest party. Thus it claims it has a chance to wrest the seat from the Congress. The Khasi-Jaintia Hills centric party could work to its advantage in Shillong parliamentary election. Recently the party top brass has decided not to indulge in mudslinging. This is not an indication of maturity. Please recall Sohiong! The main factor for its win were personal attacks. In the last MLA elections all we got was throwing thick dirt at the NPP. Though UDP was part and parcel of the MDA-I it put all the blame of ‘high level’ and misgovernance on the NPP. However, it could afford to hurl the dirty mud at its partners since the contest was to form a new government. At the moment, only one year has passed, UDP has no room to throw even genuine allegations at MDA-II, firmly led by NPP. If it criticises the NPP, people will laugh saying, “Hey, you are in the same boat.’ The two ministers and chairmen and co-chairmen will also be thrown out. The BJP too is a partner. So whom will the NPP have a go at? The Congress? The UDP was with the Congress earlier and will be with it in the future. The VPP could be the target, for, the UDP is losing its space to the ‘Prah.’ But this tactic would find no takers.
The BJP is not anticipated to be a serious contender. The prevailing anti-Christian sentiments will fetch few votes for the nationally dominant party. TMC may or may not be in the picture but its presence or absence will make little difference. On merit one wishes the voters seriously consider the lone independent candidate, Lakhon Kma. However, realistically, when fighting elections a lot depends on the political party’s organisational structure. The chances for the NEHU Biochemistry professor this time, sadly, are bleak.
In the final analysis, Shillong 2024 could be as follows. The fight for poll position might be between the Congress and VPP. The NPP, UDP, BJP, TMC, independents will occupy their respective spots.