The situation is evolving after the hasty exit of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh as advised by the army chief Waker-uz-Zaman there. Obviously, the situation has gone beyond control and out of Hasina’s hands as student protests against job reservations for Awami League families turned violent, and its ranks were infiltrated by the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and pro-Pakistan elements too. The over- 200 deaths in violence and police action in a matter of two months unsettled Hasina’s administration. The order from the army chief to the prime minister to have an urgent exit left her with little choice and India was her obvious destination with a plan to seek asylum in the UK. She has been India’s best friend in the geopolitical region for many years, having ruled Bangladesh for 20 years in two different phases, and her father having got support from India to break out of the Pakistani shackles and achieve an independent, sovereign status for what was till 1971 East Pakistan.
The Indian establishment was shaken but not shocked by the turn of events in Bangladesh. Hints are that India had cautioned Hasina against the appointment of Waker-uz-Zaman as army chief earlier this year by citing his perceived tilt towards China and Pakistan. As it turned out, he let the prime minister down at the most inopportune moment and declared plans to form an all-party interim government. This would mean the BNP and some pro-Pakistani Islamist parties too would be majorly involved in the interim government that would, sooner or later, oversee fresh elections to parliament. India is in touch with the military brass there and has strengthened its eastern border patrols. Meghalaya has declared night curfew along the border regions. Bangladesh cannot afford to take an anti-India stand, irrespective of who rules there. If the new authorities there opt to play the tunes of China or Pakistan, they are bound to face serious consequences since India has adequate firepower. How this is put to effective use is for the Modi government to decide. It has started the consultation process with the Opposition and the nation would stand united.
Pakistan cannot hope to reunify Bangladesh under it as the eastern entity has acquired the clout to carry on as an independent nation. Bangladesh made commendable economic progress though joblessness has emerged as a serious issue due to a slowing down of the economy, which was reflected also in the high inflation. The aspiration for government jobs increased there as private sector salaries remained static while the bureaucracy kept getting regular pay hikes. The scenario is similar to that of India, though public anger has not erupted into the streets here so far. The overall satisfactory performance of the national economy and control on inflationary trends here could be the reasons.
