By Dr Małgorzata Bonikowska
2024 marks the 70th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between Poland and India. The last few years have seen the growth of the importance of both countries in their regions and the strengthening of their positions in the world. However, when opening up to Asia, Poland has so far looked mainly to China, while India, for historical reasons, has identified Europe with the capitals of strategic partners such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom.
Today, on the wave of the Indian-EU new opening after Brexit, the pandemic and in the context of Sino-American rivalry, Warsaw and New Delhi have a chance to strengthen bilateral relations by establishing a strategic partnership. It was announced during the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Poland this week. The Head of Indian government comes here after long 45 years.
India is the fifth, and soon the third largest economy in the world, and Poland is sixth in the EU and 21st in the world. India is becoming a key player in the Indo-Pacific region, where there is a systemic rivalry between two superpowers: China and the USA. Poland is the West’s hub for operations in Ukraine, the leading country on NATO’s eastern flank, and one of the leaders in building a new architecture of European security against Russia. Seeing these changes, Warsaw and New Delhi decided to seek better political and economic ties.
India since independence and throughout the Cold War did not want to be entangled in either of the two geopolitical blocs at the time. The biggest enemy was Pakistan, supported by the Americans, which is why India was inclined to closer ties with the USSR. Since Western countries did not express their willingness to share their military technologies with India for years, New Delhi was forced to take advantage of the Russian offer and buy ships, fighters, helicopters, tanks, weapons and ammunition there. At the same time, due to the strongly felt threat from its Western neighbour, it conducted a nuclear program and has had nuclear weapons since the 1990s.
Despite its usual restraint, India is becoming more actively involved in the international arena, realising that increasing its global position also means increasing responsibility. In 2023, it chaired the G-20 group, using it ideally for political and promotional purposes.Traditional friendship with Moscow, as well as dependence on the arms sector, did not allow New Delhi to take a clear position on the issue of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. India began to use the situation to its advantage, among other things, by buying Russian oil and gas at lower prices and paying in rupees, which made it more difficult for the Russians to manoeuvre. The proximity to China and the existing border problems with China and Pakistan mean that New Delhi must uphold the stability of equipment supplies from Russia. At the same time, India has begun to increase the scale of its arms purchases in the West and build self-sufficiency in the defence sector. However, moving away from dependence on Russia will take at least ten years.Poland and India share several beautiful pages of history. During World War II, the Maharaja of Jamnagar gave shelter to several hundred Polish women and children trying to get to the West for several months on his estate in Gujarat. To this day, the “children of the Maharaja” are in touch with each other, and a street and a junior high school in Warsaw have been named after him. In 1944, Poles and Indians, arm in arm captured the hill and monastery of Monte Cassino, pushing the Germans out and opening the way for the Allies to reach Rome. Today, Polish universities educate thousands of students from India. Poles are increasingly eager to watch Bollywood films and listen to Indian pop music. Tourism and business are developing in both directions. Indian companies are investing in Poland, especially in IT, biotechnology, and electronic equipment and packaging sectors. In 2023, they employed about 10,000 Polish workers, and investments exceeded USD 3 billion. India is the second largest market for Polish FDI in Asia. According to data from National Bank of Poland, in 2021, their value in India amounted to almost PLN 380 million.
Trade and investment cooperation between Poland and India in the 21st century has several major “success stories”. However, looking at both countries’ political and economic aspirations, their achievements in development, and a shared understanding of the challenges and needs of the modern world, the potential for cooperation is often more significant than the previous scope of bilateral cooperation. While trade is currently below the potential of this South Asian giant, there are promising signs of growth.
In 2019, India was Poland’s 28th largest trading partner, ranking 40th in exports (0.3%) and 25th in imports (0.8%). However, in 2021, bilateral trade reached USD 4.3 billion, marking a significant increase of 57% year-on-year. This positive trend continued, with exports from Poland to India reaching EUR 1.5 billion and imports EUR 3.868 billion a year later.India and Poland have undergone critical changes in their political and economic systems over the last 45 years. The key areas of bilateral cooperation should include research and development and electro-mobility to a much greater extent. It is also worth increasing business contacts, including at the start-up level. Joint development of hydrogen-related technologies, green technologies, solutions for the space sector, climate-friendly mining, and the agri-food sector would be promising. Contacts in security infrastructure and capabilities of defence and IT sectors are worth expanding.
Direct air connections between New Delhi, Mumbai, and Warsaw, launched in 2019 are facilitated by direct business, scientific, and tourist contacts. Polish aspirations to create a new aviation hub in the heart of Europe may work well with the potential of aviation infrastructure in India, where passenger traffic is growing by 15% year-on-year.
In Poland’s thinking about strategic partnership, a new perspective on India as a rising global player, which is taken seriously by world powers – the US and China – is essential while simultaneously expecting greater responsibility for matters concerning the international order. Warsaw prepared a practical offer for India of comprehensive, mutually beneficial cooperation based on new assumptions. It includes supplies of military equipment, food, and products lacking in the Indian market. India puts high emphasis on business, education and academic cooperation, including offering 20 scholarships for Polish young people to study in India. The topic of security cannot be omitted from bilateral talks. Although historical and internal conditions prevent India from taking an openly critical stance towards Russia’s actions in Ukraine, the government in Warsaw tries to convince the Indian Prime Minister to take a more decisive stance at the UN and in diplomacy. More so because the global consequences of the war are visible on many levels and are of great importance to India, such as the increase in the prices of energy resources, food shortages, and disruption of supply chains.
According to Poland, it is in India’s interest to support the “democratic world” in the fight against neo-imperialism and the use of military force, which is contrary to the principles of international law and the Charter of the United Nations. This is important in the context of India’s efforts to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council, which Poland supports. At the same time, the nearly three-year war in Ukraine favours strengthening Russia’s relations with China. Obviously, it is not in India’s interest. Russia may not be a problem for India, but China is. INFA
(The writer is President, Centre for International Relations, Poland)