The BJP having trounced its principal foe, the Congress, in the assembly polls in two politically high-profile states, the overall mood is seen to be loaded in its favour. This is a credit for a party that ruled the Centre and these states – Haryana and Maharashtra – for long spells since 2014. There obviously is no anti-incumbency factor at work. Clearly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been able to retain the confidence of the nation after two continuous terms in power and he’s running through a third term; his head held high. Despite the win for the Congress in Karnataka followed by Telangana, the Hindi belt seems to be backing the BJP; and the mood is reflected also in the Marathi-speaking Maharashtra. Even as the inflationary trends are adversely impacting home budgets, the nation is free of tension, with the exception of Manipur, where social divisions remain sharp. While farmers have returned to the streets in the northern sector, this too has not snowballed into a major crisis for the government.
There are those who ask the question whether this is now the calm before the storm. While the poor are fed with doles, freebies and subsidies, the middle class is faced with serious difficulties both in the urban and rural sectors. Prices and service charges are going up but salaries are remaining stagnant in most cases. As a result, people are relying heavily on personal loans from banks. As per published reports, some 67 per cent of Indian families carry the burden of personal loans; and more than half of the youths have availed it. Repayment from meagre income/salaries would mean less ability on their part to spend in future; which could affect the market dynamics. Worse, it is recorded that the huge spurt in personal loans decreased the share of loans by banks to industries from 42 per cent ten years ago to just 22 per cent. This could mean lesser chances for job creation by industries. The slowdown of the manufacturing sector in the past decade was there for all to see. Bureaucratic red tape, licence raj and associated corruption are among the reasons for the lack of growth in the industrial sector across states.
The present scenario, some suspect, is tailor-made for mass discontentment. The question is whether Modi can keep the show going at tolerable levels for more years. How the economy fares is important, as was evident in the upheavals in Sri Lanka and now Syria. Pakistan is already a gone case. The two terms of Narendra Modi in Delhi were a period of financial stability, not growth. Latest indications are that the GDP growth has majorly slowed down. This could be a temporary phase or a pointer to the future.
