Nearly five months after the Bangladesh uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina from power, what prevails in the country is an uneasy calm. The forces that pushed Hasina to a sudden exit are still trying to get their act together. Muhammad Yunus, heading an interim government since August last, is certainly not in control of the situation and gives the impression of being a puppet, a weakling, being spoon-fed principally by the anti-India forces. These forces are directly or indirectly being patronised by Pakistan, whose overlordship was not acceptable to the people in what was East Pakistan till the early 1970s. Even today, only a section of the people in Bangladesh have been wooed back by operatives of the Pakistani military intelligence. This section, militant as they are and a set of pawns in the hands of Islamists, was perhaps in the forefront of the mob violence there in August, along with the others set against Hasina. Together, they are attacking the minority Hindus to widen the wedge. Notably, the United States — currently in a power transition mode from President Joe Biden to Donald Trump set for January 20 — took up the matter of religious persecution in Bangladesh with Yunus over phone. The two sides reportedly “expressed a commitment to protecting the human rights of all people, regardless of religion.” How serious will Yunus and the US be in ensuring this in future is anybody’s guess.
Clearly, a state of lawlessness prevails in Bangladesh after Haisna’s exit. More violence against Hindus as also persecution of Hasina’s aides there is possible. Reading between the lines, the statement by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling the1971 liberation, “India’s historic victory”, carries with it his government’s resolve vis-a-vis the present situation in Bangladesh. The interim government of Yunus responded with a fresh demand for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina from the political asylum that New Delhi gave her. A fresh demand, or its repeat a hundred times, would not carry weight for the simple reason that the Yunus-led dispensation lacks legitimacy. Instead, if an elected government makes that demand and India refuses to act, the international community would take notice. As of now, Hasina can safely remain in India or at a designated location abroad with full protection.
Bangladesh’s future is unpredictable. There are no indications that the dust has settled there. In fact, there are speculations of the country getting disintegrated into two or three factions. Pakistan’s ISI operatives would, under the present circumstances, attempt to dig in their heels and make their presence felt over there. India will, expectedly not remain a silent spectator to the unfolding events in Bangladesh. It has multiple options. Yet, the uncertainty in Bangladesh could create problems for India in the long run. Even now, as attacks on minorities and Awami League members are on the rise, illegal migration to India too is on the upswing.
