At the dawn of the New Year, India under Narendra Modi is faced with an unenviable situation in foreign relations. The year that went by saw New Delhi’s close ally, Bangladesh, turning hostile – following the abrupt exit of Sheikh Hasina from power and her escape to India. All the goodwill generated in Bangladesh for the past half a century after the formation of Bangladesh has evaporated in a day’s time. This has come as a shock to New Delhi, which apparently failed to feel the pulse of the Muslim nation in its neighbourhood. An anti-Hasina mood was building up there also because of the anti-incumbency factor. Hasina had been at the helm for long. When the worst happened in Dhaka, instead of being in a position to help Hasina hold on, the Indian agencies blinked. This is the public perception, based on available evidence. To blame New Delhi for what went wrong in Bangladesh is, however, not justified. This being a Muslim nation, there’s a limit to how New Delhi can operate there.
This is also the scene in Afghanistan, another Muslim nation that India had helped for many years. The Taliban is fundamentalist in its outlook and practice, and its regime is keeping a long distance with New Delhi after the exit of the US forces from there and formation of a new regime. Though the regime seemed to edge closer to Pakistan in its aftermath, several issues have cropped up between them. India is caught in another fix. A restoration of the old friendship between New Delhi and Kabul seems impossible. The scenario vis-a-vis India and Nepal too is far from satisfactory. With change of many governments in Kathmandu after the turn of the century, the old bonhomie is no longer evident while China has successfully wooed Nepal. As for Sri Lanka, the change of governments there has not helped improve bilateral relations in any significant manner. The leftists now in power there might attempt to strengthen the island nation’s ties with China. Maldives, another tiny nation in the neighbourhood, too has drifted away from India and built bridges with Pakistan and China, much to New Delhi’s discomfiture. Over and above all these, Pakistan and China continue to give pinpricks to India.
At the global level, the contention is that India has inched closer to Russia. Whether this is a credit or a discredit to the Modi dispensation is not clear yet. Rather, unlike in the past, Moscow is closer to China in recent times. Where Putin would stand in a future scenario is unpredictable. The games that New Delhi played in the context of the West’s sanctions against Putin perhaps alienated the West from New Delhi to an extent. With Donald Trump returning to the White House later this month, how this would reflect on future relations between Washington and New Delhi remains to be seen.
