By Jaideep Saikia
The imposition of President’s Rule in Manipur was hailed as the beginning of the end of a dark chapter. But the manner in which the call to surrender illegal arms and restore free movement in the state has been stymied is being viewed as a dampener.
But surgeries need a recuperation period. Bloodletting happens at times. It is only natural. However, wounds will heal after a passage of time. Time and history are testimony to both catharsis and correction.
But a reality check reveals that Manipur is in for a long haul. Peace might not return as quickly as it was expected. Wheels within wheels, new ethnic strife, this time between the Hmars and the Kukis, are being reported. The ethnic cauldron that characterises Manipur, as indeed it is true for the entire North East, is schism ridden. There are no easy answers to the deep-seated malaise. Indeed, dialogue is the only way forward. Out-of-the-box calibration is needed to ensure that representatives of the various warring groups and well-meaning civil society organisations meet sooner than later.
A Track-II Dialogue between the Kukis/other affiliates and Meiteis must start immediately. It is understood that it may not take place in Manipur because of the deep-seated animosity that continues to reign in the state as also because of apprehension that a physical meeting might spark off newer distress. If that is the case, then the dialogue could take place in Guwahati, Shillong or Delhi.
The foremost aspect that needs to be ushered in is a “sense of calm” in the state. The state must resort to all possible ways and forms, including psychological initiatives, to ascertain that at least some “breathing space” whereby violence does not erupt again prevails.
However, the most important aspect would have to pertain to the disarming of the ethnic armed groups of all hues. Unfortunately, the Governor’s call to voluntarily deposit all illegal arms has not yet amounted to much. Stern kinetic action might have to be resorted to in order to recover all the armaments that have been causing mayhem in the state.
If there is resistance to the call and breaks are being applied to the appeal for deposition of arms and free movement then a rethink at the highest level may be necessary. Calculated discretion should become the middle name of national security management and diplomacy. But the crying need of the hour is that the sufferings of the internally displaced peoples are quickly addressed and alleviated. The relief camps must be provided proper amenities with hygiene ensured. The state would have yet another problem on its hands if epidemic, especially with monsoon soon setting in, was to break out.
It is also important to secure the highways and prevent looting and destruction of public property by lumpen elements that might have the backing of the ethnic groups who are attempting to resist the call for free movement.
Even as a concerted effort is being made to usher in normalcy, the lament that funds meant for the Hill areas of Manipur are not reaching the target areas must be addressed. Complete transparency that would allay allegation of misappropriation should accompany the manner in which the resources and allocation of funds are being made and utilised. Facts and statistics about the Hill-Valley apportioning must be made public. This will help in future planning for correct and equitable distribution.
The seriousness with which the Centre (and even the RSS!) is finally according to Manipur must be met with a synchronised course correction in the compass. The security coordinate must change direction in order to decisively focus on the border with an eye to dousing the flames that are being fanned from across Myanmar. It is a possibility that onlooking anti-India groups may play spoiler and derail attempts to restore normalcy in the state. Such groups must be prohibited from entering Manipur. Illegal Drones that have played havoc in the past must be banned in the airspace over Manipur, Nagaland and South Arunachal Pradesh.
China and other extra-regional powers that are seeking to fish in troubled waters have to be forcefully kept out of any loop that they are seeking to bandwagon themselves on to.
The Centre must be cognisant of the “thunders” that are razing in neighbouring Bangladesh and Myanmar. Spillover effects onto the North East can be expected soon. The visit by Supreme Court judges to Manipur would have a salutary effect. The visit and pronouncements by the judiciary were encouraging. However, Justice B.R. Gavai’s statement that the Manipur crisis can be solved by taking recourse to “constitutional means” needs to be spelt out. What exactly are these “constitutional mechanisms”?
A Task Force on the “misfortunes” of the region should be set up immediately. A North East Security Council as was recommended by me over 15 years ago to then BJP prime ministerial candidate, Lal Krishna Advani, should be summarily instituted.
Manipur is India’s “Land of Emeralds”. All stakeholders should come together and put on their thinking hats and chalk out a durable plan for the restoration of peace in the state.
The nation cannot afford a continuance of the macabre drama. Enough is enough.
(Jaideep Saikia is India’s foremost strategist and bestselling author)