When it comes to war, a prediction about its course or final outcome is best left to one’s imagination. When Vladimir Putin, at the height of his glory, launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, his expectation was to take the small breakaway territory in a matter of a few days. Now three years have passed and he’s squirming in his chair, unable to fulfill his wish in the face of steadfast defiance from President Zelenskyy. It’s here that many are keeping their fingers crossed vis-à-vis an “impending” showdown between the nuclear–armed India and Pakistan. The UN Security Council has advised patience on both sides, but two things are clear from that front. One, its call for talks to sort out the issues was by by no means a bar on either side to engage in a confrontation. The UN increasingly proved its limitations, vis-à-vis its avowed goal of averting future wars. Two, China would be at hand to help Pakistan in any difficult scenario with its Veto power. A Veto power however does not help avert a war.
Intentionally or not, the “drag” on India’s part to take on Pakistan, lasting a fortnight’s time by now, has rather hurt Pakistan on multiple fronts. The top brass in both Islamabad and Rawalpindi jumped to the conclusion at the very outset that a war was at hand. The full-scale preparations it did, including the ferrying of hundreds of thousands of its soldiers and weaponry from the western sector to the LoC, and the high alert it maintained for all these days, cost the Pakistani exchequer heavily. It would now appear that India might strike from the western end too, from an air base it has in Tajikistan. Clearly, India is planning its response in minute details. At the diplomatic level, it took both the US and Russia into confidence. Irritants could be Turkey and Iran. But, with Vladimir Putin extending his full support for India in a likely military response to Pahalgam, Pakistan’s main hope rests on China backing it.
Pakistan is bleeding on many fronts. While international airlines are avoiding Pakistan in view of the safety fears post April 22, causing huge losses to the Islamic nation, the national carrier PIA itself is put in a worst plight. It was already struggling in recent years, and the few flights it operates too are caught in uncertainties now. Indian airlines too face a similar ban from Pakistan, but these are better positioned. The Pakistani markets, which largely depended on India for goods, are troubled by the trade ban that New Delhi has imposed on it. The water ban, though its full impact could be known only later, is already causing heartburns for Pakistan. The real action, on the military front, hasn’t started yet. The air raid sirens, the security drills etc., being announced here are hints that “some big action” is imminent.
