The West Asia region is back in turmoil with a major military confrontation between long-standing rivals Israel and Iran. Chances of an immediate halt to the destructive engagements from both sides seem remote but with the US present in the middle, the war is unlikely to further escalate. Urgings from President Donald Trump had been rejected by Teheran, which has also pulled itself out of the nuclear-related talks with the US by skipping its sixth round on Sunday. Yet, the intensity of the war can be gauged from the fact that Israel targeted Iran’s defence ministry headquarters in Teheran and hit another target – the South Pars gas field in Iran’s Bushehr province on Saturday. Apart from a hit on Iran’s SPND nuclear facility in an area where Teheran “hid its N-archives,” a refinery jointly run by Iran and Qatar bore the brunt. This has the potential to draw more Islamic nations into action mode against Israel. Israel’s Operation Rising Lion was aggressively met with Iran’s Operation Promise 3. Iranian attacks continued Sunday through Saturday night, with the promise of an escalation on the third day. Israel’s energy infra and a jet-fuel production facility came under attack from Iran. Casualties in Israel have been considerable, with some deaths and injuries to over 200 persons. Iran suffered heavier casualties, some 60 deaths in a missile hit on a high-rise residential building alone; nearly half of them children.
Modern warfare is largely about missile strikes from the air and not the army offensives on the ground. This reduces casualties. Even in missile hits on mostly governmental structures, the casualties are reduced to a minimum as these are staged mostly at night. The precision in decimating the targets through remote control is well-noticed in the recent India-Pakistan military engagement too. As President Trump stressed, Israel’s concern is mainly on Iran’s increased resort to develop its nuclear attack capabilities and that a solution to the present offensive from Tel Aviv lies in addressing this issue.
Iran’s mix of fundamentalism in its politics ever since the exit of the then-popular Shah of Iran has been a serious concern to the developed world. While Shah had been close to the West, the succeeding army of Revolutionary Guards extricated Iran from western influences and turned the governance religion-specific. Israel, tied to the US by an umbilical cord, has a larger military might in terms of sophisticated arms of warfare; and Iran is close behind in terms of global military rankings. A fight between them is no small matter. Yet, a larger escalation is unlikely as long as the US remains in the loop even as it has limited bargaining power with the Iranians. America’s persuasive power with Israel is strong. Put together, an end to the present conflict might be possible, rather than a continued escalation to deadly scenarios. Yet, Trump has already warned direct involvement in the war if its installations in the region faced any threat from Iran.
