From CK Nayak
NEW DELHI, July 29: Meghalaya, the rainiest place on earth, is the highest rainfall deficient state this southwest monsoon season.
It received less rain than the much drier Jharkhand. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that there is less likelihood of the state meeting the deficit this season.
This is alarming since livelihood and water security of many parts of the state is rain-dependent. Around 83 per cent of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture. The state’s 48 per cent of the land is cultivable.
Between June 1 and July 28, Meghalaya received only 690.7 mm of rainfall against a normal of 1,555.4 mm. Even Sohra, the rainiest place in the world, shows a decreasing trend from February to September.
According to a research paper published in the Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing in 2022, the central parts of Meghalaya received more rain than other parts of the state during 1951-1960.
Over time, the drier areas increased in size, especially in western, central and northern regions. An analysis in this regard was done by scientists from the irrigation and drainage department of the College of Agricultural Engineering and Post-Harvest Technology, Central Agricultural University, Sikkim.
The researchers analysed the decadal variation of rainfall between 1951 and 2020 over annual, monthly and seasonal timescales in Meghalaya using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI measures the deviation of observed rainfall from the long-term average for a specific region over a particular time period.
The study found that in recent decades, the wetter regions in Meghalaya were in its southern and southeastern parts — East Khasi Hills and Jaintia Hills. The highest rainfall has been recorded in the southwest Khasi Hills.
Another analysis of rainfall during the southwest monsoon season between 1989 and 2018, conducted by the IMD, showed Meghalaya as one of the five states having experienced a significant decreasing trend in rainfall. The other four states were Nagaland, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
While the absolute rainfall in Meghalaya may remain higher than other areas in the larger region of Northeast India, the decreasing trend may also impact the rich flora and fauna of the state used to high rains year after year and monsoon after monsoon. The state is part of the Indo-Burma biodiversity hotspot, which is one of four in India and 34 in the world.
Such decreasing trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over decades and even in some of the rainiest of places also put into focus the impact of global warming and consequent climate change on the rainfall patterns in agriculture-dependent and biodiversity-rich regions like Meghalaya.
The 2025 Southwest Monsoon season in India has been characterised by an early onset and rapid advancement, with the rains reaching Kerala early on May 24 and covering the entire country ahead of schedule, by June 29.
The IMD has predicted above-normal rainfall for the season as a whole (106% of the Long Period Average), with particularly strong rainfall expected in central and south peninsular India. But Meghalaya and the other states of the Northeast might receive below-normal rainfall.