Wednesday, August 6, 2025
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Young ‘dead’ economy

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A perceived strength of the Narendra Modi-led NDA dispensation was the “efficient” manner in which it managed the national economy. When the economies of neighbouring countries underwent shocks, the scenario here seemed normal. But, the description of it being a “dead” economy by US President Donald Trump has created a sensation. Predictably, Opposition Leader Rahul Gandhi has caught on to it, certifying that this was “true” and that everyone stated so, out here, other than PM Modi and his finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Overall, India is growing in terms of its modern infrastructure, defence preparedness and quality of life for the rich and other upwardly mobile segments. The ordinary people, forming over 80 per cent of the population, however, got a raw deal. For them, progress or a better life is mostly a mirage.
In totality, India as a nation faces serious internal issues that have not been addressed by successive governments. To add to this are the threats from external powers. For one, the US muscle-flexing will have serious adverse effects on India. Based on figures last year, India exported over $80 billion worth of goods to the United States, while the US sent goods worth $40 billion to India. The volume of exports from here to the US is likely to be sharply hit by the Trump Administration’s imposition of a 25 per cent tariff on all items reaching its shores from India from this month. Trump’s accusation is that India’s own tariffs “are too high, among the highest in the world,” — in a warning that the US was not interested in boosting trade with this country. Notably, the EU and the US have been India’s main destinations for exports. The Indian economy was visibly at its best during Dr Manmohan Singh’s tenure; the GDP rising to an unsustainable over 9 per cent. During the fag end of his term, it scaled down. Since 2014, it went further down, touching around five per cent, and it now runs at six-plus. However, India is still better off than its neighbours.
On record, India positions itself as the world’s fourth largest economy in a comparative analysis. It is set to outwit Germany and emerge as the third largest. It has to wait there and cannot aspire to outwit titans, the US or China. The IMF predicts that India’s economy would cross the $6.8 trillion mark by 2030. The US is now a $30 trillion economy and China a $19 trillion. India’s strength is its young workforce. Some 37 crore people are aged 15 to 29, this being the world’s largest population of young people. While this demographic dividend is our main strength, their productive energies are not channelled in the right direction. They would eventually age and become a huge burden on the nation. Their youthful energy now should not be wasted. While China acted with foresight and gained, India might as well lose. For, the government here looks the other way. Laziness is encouraged here through free/subsidized ration. There has to be a better way out!

 

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