By Jaideep Saikia
If the proverbial eye of the storm, post American withdrawal, had been South Asia’s western extremity, increasing insecurity has begun to spread eastwards. The return of the Taliban to power following the “failure” of Operation Inherent Resolve saw an expansion of Salafist terrorist networks towards the other end of the subcontinent.
Pakistan, based on its objective of “bleeding India with a thousand cuts,” have let loose its “bottled-up” Islamist terrorists into India. India, waged a “limited war” by way of Operation Sindoor targeting terror camps that Pakistan had been harbouring.
Unfortunately, the “dissuasion strategy” that Operation Sindoor had hoped to infuse on the failed state of Pakistan does not seem to have been successful, and the “experts” that are hoping that it would deter those in Pakistan that continue to view terrorism as a tool of statecraft are mistaken. Enmity towards India is the fundamental raison d’être of the security establishment of the country. The need for additional military action in the future including what has been spoken about as Op Sindoor-II may have to be resorted to. In fact, the latest Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defence deal is part of Pakistan’s stratagem to deter India from another expeditionary mission against it, even as it plans its next novel subterfuge via an increasingly Islamist Bangladesh. The move was a crafty one, albeit one that suddenly came to the fore as a result of Benjamin Netanyahu’s rash action against the Hamas leadership billeted in Qatar. Rawalpindi grabbed the opportunity and was able to kill two birds with one stone.
The defence pact between a traditionally pro-India Saudi Arabia and Pakistan must be seen not only in light of continuing tense relationship between India and Pakistan, but the atmospherics in the Middle East particularly the manner in which Israel acted against Qatar. This has set the cat among the pigeons with even Trump distancing himself from Netanyahu’s impetuous action to take on the Hamas leadership in Doha. It has also brought the entire Arab people together in a resolve to “punish” Israel. Pakistan seized the opportunity as a nuclear nation and quickly took advantage of the situation. It showcased to India that it has been able to sway away old allies such as Saudi Arabia from India’s orbit, and at the same time bandwagon itself into the growing nexus against pro-India Israel. Observers might view the recent development as Israel-centric in view of the Qatar attack. But the fact of the matter is that Rawalpindi has succeeded in bringing the defence deal with the Saudis as an “anti-India” act. This is alarming to say the least because one of the clauses in the pact informs that “aggression against either Pakistan or Saudi Arabia would be taken as belligerence against the other.” This clearly puts India into a military-diplomatic quandary. What if Netanyahu attacks Saudi Arabia as it did against Qatar? How would India react then? After all, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, met in the aftermath of the Doha strike and agreed to take steps “to activate the mechanisms of joint defence and the Gulf deterrence capabilities”. Indeed, what would Saudi Arabia do if India were to operationalise the “paused” Op Sindoor onto its second and perhaps more ferocious phase against Pakistan? If India failed to dissuade Pakistan by way of Op Sindoor-I, then it would itself be faced with a real dissuasion strategy if it countenances an Op Sindoor-II against a neighbour which is not only whipping up anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh, but is currently “aligned” with an anti-Israel Saudi Arabia. The great Indian ambivalence is being put to the fire-test!
It seems that the Indian internal intelligence set up has become a chamber of confusion. Its leadership just does not have the competence to either sniff out the multiple subterfuges that are being engendered against India, nor are they capable of thwarting them. They are at best smug with a few apprehensions/neutralisations of “Islamists” and are busy flaunting them in front of a gullible Indian electorate as victory. But the truth is that the present internal intelligence system of India has not been able to pre-empt a single threat, whether it is Manipur, Bangladesh, Baisaran or Nepal. Incidentally, India’s near-abroad comprising abutting nations like Bangladesh and Nepal are within the ambit of India’s internal intelligence apparatus, and India’s external intelligence agency is only a part of the counter intelligence grid that comprise the country’s neighbourhood.
The present, therefore, is an extremely shaping moment for India. Unfortunately, the present crop of people advising Modi do not seem equipped in finding the right median that would secure India’s interests. Also, it has been witnessed that a section of the partisan Indian milieu is attempting to browbeat the government. Instead, even as it points out the dangers, this constituency must strengthen the hands of the dispensation. Modi must seek counsel from domain specialists who know best. The creaking old bureaucratic machine, primarily the internal intelligence set-up, has come to a geriatric halt. It is time to shelf a few who are pushing India into a cleft of peril.
Myanmar is in the throes of a brutal civil war and ethnic divide and the continuing impasse in Manipur seems to, notwithstanding Modi’s belated visit, indicate a larger design. Status quo with a greater vehemence and articulation has come to the fore after Modi’s visit. Was this not pre-empted?
Following the changes of regime in Bangladesh and Nepal the threat focus has shifted towards both these countries that abut India. The upheaval in Bangladesh is certainly an American attempt to offset the growing influence of India, and the “revolution” in Nepal by Gen Z is far from over. If course correction exercises are not undertaken by New Delhi, the situation in both Nepal and Bangladesh could witness a “domino effect” in certain parts of India which abut the Terai (Madhesi) region of Nepal. This could include Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Although the primary reason for an extra-regional power fishing in muddied waters in Nepal and Bangladesh seems to be to principally thwart Chinese “suzerainty” in the Himalayan and the Bay nations, a band-wagoning effect that hurts India cannot be ruled out, especially as crucial states like Bihar go to the polls in November 2025.
Furthermore, the relationship that was reset between India and China post Tianjin 31 August 2025 has been perceived unfavourably by the US. Significant challenges remain in the India-China relationship, especially as it pertains to the resolution of the 3,488-km-long boundary that stretches from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh. However, there are indications that both countries are beginning to understand that a border settlement is crucial to develop their relationship. The “Line of Amity” theory must be studied carefully by a high-powered task force. After all, the “détente-in-construction” that has come into the firmament is a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Unfortunately, there are hawks aplenty in India, especially in the Indian army and they have taken the maxim that “deception is a sole Chinese preserve” a bit too seriously. Sun Tzu is being studied and practiced globally and it would be folly to superimpose ancient aphorisms onto a people that are extending hands of amity. Now that India has agreed on a piecemeal working of the border issue, the least it can do (even as it continues to exercise caution) is to at least “war-game” the “Line of Amity” concept and see how far it takes both the countries. Would a real time agreement on the border be achieved in the end? It is important to give it a “go”.
However, the most important threat is the manner in which radical Islamism has gripped the region. Currently, one is witnessing not only the potential destruction of the last vestiges of democracy in Bangladesh, but also the risk of an unopposed expansion of the scourge within the region and beyond. The victory of the Jamaat-e-Islami’s student wing, the Islami Chhatra Shibir in the Dhaka University (known as the second parliament of Bangladesh) elections did not augur well. Gholam Azam’s successors would have certainly been funded by the ISI in its unprecedented win of 9 out of 12 seats. Indeed, the irony is that it is the same extremist-terrorist ideology against which the international coalition had waged a global campaign not so long ago seems to be turning a blind eye to the construction of a neo-caliphate in Chittagong and thereabouts. It is clear that under the current US administration the main emphasis is the protection of its own homeland and that the fact that the many regions of the world such as South Asia could experience a resurgence of terrorist violence and territorial control and could become the epicentre of Islamist terrorism is not being viewed with the same sense of urgency as in the past.
The mandarins in New Delhi, on the other hand, seem to be in a state of stupor. The incompetence of the Indian internal intelligence agency has destroyed the victories achieved by the Indian military in 1971. It was Sam Bahadur’s men who had ably aided in the formation of Bangladesh, a nation that the Jamaat-e-Islami had transformed itself into (a monster during Op Searchlight) in order to stop the eastern wing from severing itself away from a reprehensible Pakistan. There is no excuse for repeated failures.
[Jaideep Saikia is India’s foremost strategist and best-selling author. His 16th book Point of Impact was published on 15 August 2025]
