By Nilova Roy Chaudhury
Countries across South Asia have been riven by apparently spontaneous, popular upheavals which have forced members of the ruling polity to flee their countries. Aspects of what happened recently on the streets of neighbouring Kathmandu were reminiscent of the ‘Arab spring’ that began in Tunisia in the early 2010s and engulfed entrenched sections of the West Asian polity. It remains unclear how India’s neighbourhood turmoil will get resolved and what the impact on India will be.
While it remains unlikely that India will get seriously affected by the popular upheavals that have swept out elected governments in the neighbourhood, there is certainly some unease within the establishment. The central government will be closely looking at and examining why people turned against their elected governments and ousted them.
The immediate provocation may have been different in each country, but the underlying theme; from the economic collapse and removal of the Rajapaksas in Sri Lanka in 2022, the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh in August 2024 and the overthrow of the KP Oli government in Nepal; has been corruption and the governments’ failure to meet and manage the aspirations of the youth. A series of government missteps ignited the discontent, which erupted in mass protests, abating only when the leaders fled.
A significant portion of South Asia’s population is 35 years or less. The demographic dividend was meant to work to the advantage of these countries. However, the Covid 19 pandemic sent economies into a tailspin, leaving vast numbers of unemployed youth who found themselves with limited opportunities, unable to fulfil their aspirations. Their governments, led by aging leaders, appeared out of sync with their requirements and unable to channelize their energies into gainful opportunities, leading to increasing frustration. The perceived corruption and ineptitude of ruling parties acted as the trigger.
In Nepal, the proverbial ‘last straw’ was the blanket ban on major social media platforms in the country, including Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, and WhatsApp. The government said the ban was invoked because of “non-compliance with Nepali law,” but this was viewed as an authoritarian attempt to suppress dissent and stop digital spaces essential for communication, education and employment. With perceived entrenched government corruption, which has not eased despite two decades since the removal of the monarchy and institution of a Republic, the social media ban ignited the simmering discontent.
Uniquely, unlike past protests driven by political parties or ethnic entities, demonstrations which unseated Oli’s government were spearheaded by an amorphous group of young professionals and students calling themselves Gen Z. For them, social media provided the platform to digitally coordinate their protests, challenge the political stagnation, demand that leaders be held accountable. Nepal has witnessed massive political instability, including 14 different governments since 2008, and seen widespread protests against corruption and bad governance.
Peace was restored once the Army and Gen Z representatives agreed to hold fresh elections within six months under the interim leadership of former Chief Justice Sushila Karki. It remains to be seen whether this youth-led movement will bring real change or just be symbolic gestures.
The protests indicate that Nepal’s youthful populace have become more politically aware and active and seek transparency and accountability in public life. That violence ceased when what they perceived as the corrupt establishment was removed, displays a sense of maturity within Gen Z and continued faith in the path of democratic governance, and electoral politics.
It remains unclear where the funding for the well-orchestrated movement came. The former monarch Gyanendra, foregrounded by parties seeking to restore a Hindu monarchy, seems an unlikely source. He is too discredited to be acceptable to those who head the movement for cleaner governance.
Nepal’s Gen Z movement was compared with recent youth uprisings in South Asia; Bangladesh’s 2024 job quota protests and Sri Lanka’s 2022 ‘Aragalaya’ (struggle) uprising. They seem to highlight a global trend in which the digital-savvy generation is increasingly rejecting political elites who fail to deliver stability or provide accountability.
In Bangladesh, where the Awami League government was ousted last year, fundamentalist Islamic groups moved to seize space created by the uprising and ouster of the “secular” Hasina. Various reports suggested that the movement was funded by Islamic fundamentalists, including the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), Pakistan’s ISI, keen to regain a hold there, and even the US ‘foreign hand.’ In Dhaka then, as in Kathmandu now, the tipping point was the government’s high-handed reaction, firing on protesters.
After Hasina fled to India, the Army and protesting youth agreed to appoint the politically neutral Nobel Laureate Mohammed Yunus as Chief Advisor of an interim caretaker arrangement, but outbreaks of lawlessness and targeting of minorities continued. He announced elections in February 2026, but barred the Awami League from participating, making the polls not fully participative.
That Hasina’s regime was perceived as supported by India saw attacks on Indian targets, while the JEI, whose student wing recently swept the Dhaka University elections, for the first time ever, is seeing a resurgence. It is expected to do well, after the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party, in the scheduled 2026 elections.
Nepal has no similar fundamentalist party to make major electoral gains. There is also no strong anti-India sentiment to become a rallying factor ahead of elections, but the Indian government is not popular with Gen Z. Beyond memories of the 2015 informal ‘blockade,’ the fact that the RSS seeks the Hindu monarchy restored does not make them popular with protest leaders.
There has been recent unrest in India’s border areas, particularly in Ladakh where people seeking constitutional safeguards and their statehood restored saw an eruption of violence and widespread arrests. The government, after an initial crackdown, released some protesters, but Sonam Wangchuk, leading environmentalist, inventor and advocate for greater autonomy for Ladakh, remains jailed, charged under provisions of the strict NSA. There have also been tribal protests on the Assam-Meghalaya border against a proposed dam. How the government deals with these simmering protests will determine whether the outcome stays contained.
As the Indian government closely monitors neighbourhood events, warily watching its Neighbourhood First policy unravel, it is maintaining a strict wait and watch strategy while it strategizes about how to contain the turbulence beyond its borders.
