With the issue of notifications for the first phase of the assembly polls in Bihar, the die is cast for next month’s high-stakes electoral war. A regime change is widely expected in a state where veteran Nitish Kumar reigned supreme for nearly two decades. Edging close to 75, he is set to lead his JDU in alliance with the BJP for another electoral battle, the results of which would be known by November 14. That the two-phase polls involve the will of 7.50 crore people is important also as the results could significantly help reshape the political fortunes of two contenders – the BJP and the Congress – at the national level. This would be a scenario in which one out of every 20 Indians is expressing his/her political will. The Mahagathbandhan consisting of the RJD, the Congress and the Left is running almost neck and neck with the NDA alliance of JDU and the BJP as per some opinion polls.
Notably, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav claimed a 36 per cent acceptance level for the CM post, while incumbent Nitish Kumar fared low with a 15 per cent support, much less than the popularity of the third electoral force in the form of Prashant Kishor. The ageing, tired face of Nitish Kumar is set against the energetic youthfulness of his rival contenders. Adding an extra punch to the electoral sweepstakes is the offer from Tejashwi Yadav – that one member from every family would be made a government employee; an order for which “would be promulgated in 20 days after formation of the government.” The public mood would get reflected in the campaign that’s just about unfolding. If the opinion poll results are any indication, a one percent shift in voter mood would suffice for a win for the Opposition. This might be guaranteed by the build-up of the mass sentiments during the over three-week campaign. Notably, the last assembly poll in the state five years ago had not been a smooth sail for Kumar, though he managed to retain power. In the emerging circumstances, if the RJD-Congress combine could script success, that would signal the revival of hopes for the INDIA bloc at the national level.
Every emerging signal from Bihar points to such a possibility though the seat-sharing talks between the RJD and Congress still continue. The Congress is likely to contest around 50 seats this time against its last polls’ target of 70. The number of seats the parties gain in the assembly is what matters. A Mahagathbandhan win could boost the spirits of the Congress as the principal national opposition party, though in Bihar, it can only play second fiddle to the RJD. What gain Kishor’s Jan Suraaj can make in the present state polls in his home turf is also keenly watched. It could even be that the next government cannot be formed there by either side without his party’s support – making him the king-maker, if not the king himself. The Chirag Paswan factor too cannot be ignored in the final analysis.
