The picture about Bihar assembly elections is still hazy, with pollsters predicting JDU leader Tejashwi Yadav being the most-preferred CM face while also arriving at a conclusion that the NDA alliance of JDU, BJP and others would likely retain power. The two-phase polls for the assembly would take place on November 6 and 11, while the vote-counting and result-declaration on November 14. The first phase of the campaign drew notables like the Prime Minister and Home Minister from Delhi and Opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, among others. Alongside, the regional satraps like chief minister Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi, and Prashant Kishor of the Jan Suraaj party are raising heat and the dust.
The large presence of people to hear these leaders are no barometer to gauge the popularity of one side or the other. Crowds are mobilised by those who have the capacity to spend crores – a game in which neither the BJP nor the JDU has much any constraint, they being the ‘ruling’ parties. The clout of the Lalu Prasad family helps the RJD organise huge funds aided by the party’s well-oiled machinery. The Jan Suraaj party is relatively a new-comer and Kishor is not a part of the power edifice. Though he had made millions by virtue of being an election manager for major political parties in the past, there’s a limit to what he can afford to spend. Sizeable segments of the well-meaning middle-class are in a mood to back him, but the political character of the state being what it is, he might not make it big in the coming polls. Pollsters have predicted as much. This leaves the ground wide open for a major fight between the JDU-BJP alliance and the RJD-Congress combine, with several more of small-time parties siding with either one or the other of these two.
Clearly, so far through the campaign, it is clear that Nitish Kumar is not the hot favourite for the electorate this time. His leadership of Bihar over the past several years has not helped the state grow. Kumar started with the promise of Sadak, Pani (roads and water) to the poorly developed state some 20 years ago. He proved that he’s a survivor par excellence, but one who lacked the vision or imagination to take Bihar to the next level of economic progress. His archaic mindset is no guarantee to Bihar’s progress. It would appear that the people understand as much and seek a change of face. This time, however, the game may change with the BJP staking claim for the CM post if the alliance wins. Alternatively, it could be the youthful Tejashwi who could emerge successful; and for worse—it could be Kumar again if the NDA wins and he demands one more term as CM. A dark horse too could emerge as the next CM. The people are the ultimate masters of any polls. How they vote is simply unpredictable. Opinion polls are no longer the last word.
