President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, the first after his 2022 invasion of Ukraine, assumes special significance. The Russian parliament’s ratification of the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistic Support pact between India and Russia shortly before Putin’s visit has raised the relations between the two nations to a new level. What could be expected during this visit are new trade, energy and defence deals, including the leasing of a nuclear-powered submarine at a cost of $2billion. All eyes are on the energy deals that the two countries sign during this visit, as the US has already ‘punished’ India in this context with huge punitive tariffs for exports from here, seriously hurting our exports and trade relations with the West. In a parallel diplomatic outreach, India is continuing its talks with the US to reduce the hiked tariffs.
Russia has been India’s close friend since the Cold War era when the US and USSR were engaged in a bitter rivalry. Jawaharlal Nehru’s fancy for non-alignment with world powers, however, effectively meant a joint front against the US, with the USSR leading a pack of under-developed nations set against “imperialism” – a euphemism for American supremacy. This set the US against India; and in favour of Pakistan. The end of the Cold War era and disintegration of the USSR in the1980s, followed by the age of Liberalization and Globalisation, edged India closer to the US since the 1990s when the Narasimha Rao-Manmohan Singh combine charted a new course for the nation. Matchingly, Russia under Putin distanced itself from India. A new opportunity for a strengthening of ties between these two nations arose with the US sanctions against Russia’s energy deals. Prime Minister Narendra Modi saw an opportunity in this and signed energy deals with Moscow, which benefited India in economic terms. President Trump’s decree in August, imposing hefty tariffs on India for the violation of the American sanctions on Russia abruptly created a wedge between the US and India. In this context, chances are that India would be compelled to do some tight-rope walking vis-à-vis its fresh energy negotiations with Russia. Yet, the importance that India attaches to Putin’s visit is proof that the browbeating by Trump would not cow down New Delhi.
Defence sector has seen major deals between Russia and India for many years. Even as Putin kept a distance with New Delhi for a period, the defence-sector ties remained strong. India continued purchase of Russian military hardware for its defence requirements. Citations are that the West has more sophisticated weapons and fighter jets on its sales list. India’s negotiations with the West too would continue in terms of such acquisitions. However, with the US adopting strong postures against India and strengthening its ties with Pakistan, an added concern for India is China’s negative mindset. Though Modi visited China and attempted to reset India’s ties with the red neighbour, its success is yet to be ascertained. Russia too has strengthened its ties with China in recent times. Overall, a sense of uncertainty about bilateral relations is all too pronounced now. Putin’s gestures in Delhi would hopefully help clear the air.
