By Nitya Chakraborty
The announcement by the Bangladesh Election Commission to hold general elections in Bangladesh on February 12 next year is a major development in the evolving politics of South Asia, especially with respect to India. The EC statement was welcomed by all the contesting political parties. The nomination process will be over by January 20 and from January 22, the election campaign will start and end on February 10, two days before the polling day February 12.
Significantly, the voters list consisting of 12.77 crore Bangladeshi citizens has not created any controversy as is happening in India now. Mainstream political parties like Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat E Islami and National Citizens Party (NCP) have been working to finalise candidates for the 300 member national assembly. The NCP has been the first party to officially announce the names of some candidates.
The Awami League which ruled from 2009 to 2024 until the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government on August 5 last year, has been excluded from participation in the forthcoming national elections. There has been no major protests by the Awami League within the country after the election announcement by the EC but Sheikh Hasina herself came out with strong statements from her hideout in India terming the elections as illegal as well as the Election Commission as an illegal body. The fate of large numbers of Awami League supporters on polling day remains unclear. Some recent opinion polls have put AL supporters at 15 percent higher than the NCP.
Apart from the national elections for electing the new national assembly, the Bangladesh voters will also take part in the referendum on the July charter for framing a new Constitution for the country. If the referendum is in favour of the charter, a new Constitution Reforms Council will be set up to frame the Constitution. A new Council will also be formed on the basis of the proportionality of the elected political parties.
The July Charter contains very ambitious objectives for setting up a value based transparent government and administration. The real test is whether the new political leadership will be able to implement the agenda in letter and spirit. The experience of political governance in Bangladesh since its formation in 1971 is that the ruling political parties have consistently failed to provide transparent governance. Despite a democratic agenda, the governing parties are steeped in corruption while the common people’s interests are ignored. That has been the history of both Awami League and BNP regimes in the last five decades.
In the last sixteen months since the ousting of the Awami League government of Sheikh Hasina, there have been tumultuous changes in the positioning of political parties in Bangladesh. The students’ body leading the anti-quota movement was the vanguard of the July movement leading to the fall of the Awami League government. An impression has gained ground that this body which formed the political party National Citizens Party (NCP) in February this year, would be a leading force as a political party in the 2026 elections. But the developments in the last nine months since the founding of NCP show that it has failed to emerge as a viable political party, while Jamaat has made big inroads. In the recent elections to the students unions in the universities, students wing of Jamaat won convincingly and defeated both BNP and the NCP bodies. In fact, NCP candidates were nowhere in the picture.
At the campaign level, NCP leaders are divided on the programme, though it was the first to announce the first list of candidates for the February 12 elections. BNP and Jamaat have already made big progress in choosing the candidates for their constituencies. Dhaka based observers believe that while BNP with its organizational spread and united leadership under Begum Zia, is set to occupy the leading position in the elections, Jamaat may emerge as the next party after BNP marginalizing NCP to a great extent. There are reports that some NCP leaders are working to align with BNP at the individual level while a few others are working for understanding with Jamaat.
Jamaat in the electoral history of Bangladesh never got more than eight per cent of the votes though the party had nuisance value in creating disturbances for the ruling government. Now with the hope of winning the elections, Jamaat e Islami leaders have sobered and project themselves as responsible leaders. Jamaat had understanding with BNP in earlier elections but this time, BNP is looking at Jamaat as a threat and refusing any truck with the party. BNP is confident of getting majority on its own in the absence of its traditional rival Awami League.
The Bangladesh Election Commission has introduced reforms to enhance participation and operational preparedness, including mechanisms for out-of-country voting. To strengthen election security, the Election Commission plans to integrate the armed forces into its election security framework. Despite these efforts, the pre-election environment remains fragile, with isolated but politically significant episodes of political violence, questions about the neutrality of local officials, and lingering distrust of security forces.
With barely two months to go until the February 12 polls, the Election Commission has emerged as both a key institutional actor and a flashpoint for partisan criticism. The proposed Representation of the People (Amendment) Ordinance 2025 (RPO) includes significant changes aimed at enhancing transparency and rebuilding voter confidence. The revised RPO raises campaign spending limits, reintroduces the “No Vote” option, and empowers the Election Commission to annul constituency results in cases of irregularities. Following months of public consultation, the Election Commission also canceled the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) for the upcoming election, citing operational challenges and concerns over credibility. It further ruled that alliance candidates must contest using their parent party’s electoral symbol, rejecting proposals to permit joint symbols for coalitions. From all reports of EC’s preparedness, there is reason to believe that the Commission really wants to hold free and fair elections in Bangladesh. That will be a great victory for democracy in Bangladesh. In South Asia, democracy is under trial in many countries including India. In Nepal, general elections are due in March 5 2026 following the downfall of the K S Oli government in October this year. In Nepal too the Gen Z demonstrators who toppled the Oli government are working hard to establish a political party to fight the conventional political parties. In Pakistan, the Election Commission is under scrutiny and many political observers pointed out the partial attitude of the Commission towards the ruling parties as against the opposition party of Imran Khan. In Sri Lanka, the new Left government is functioning well up to now with no major protest relating to stifling of the democratic process.
For India, the political outlook is not that rosy for whoever wins the February 12 polls in Bangladesh. BNP is sceptical of the Narendra Modi government but among the three main parties, BNP is the only one which can be trusted to work towards normal diplomacy. Jamaat and NCP are out and out anti-Indian parties. But Sheikh Hasina’s stay in India and her political activities are still sore points with the BNP. New Delhi has little option but to start a fresh phase of negotiations with the new political rulers in Bangladesh after the polls are over and a new government is formed.. No sensible political leader of Bangladesh heading the new government can ignore the role of India. India has the advantage but Indian leaders have to approach Bangladesh with a more friendly face based on the ground realities of the political situation in the neighbouring country. (IPA Service)
