The world’s main worry in the second half of the 20-th Century, namely the uncontrolled population growth, has not only subsided for the most part, but a reverse push for increasing the birth-rate is currently on. Not just the developed West, but under-developed Asian nations too are now in a mood to encourage more births. Curiously, China that zealously pursued population control norms for decades, is now on a reverse drive — after maintaining the status of being the world’s largest population for decades. While India has edged past China to claim this position, the Communist neighbour has begun taking a series of steps to increase the nation’s birth-rate. Its latest manifestation is in the form of a substantial hike in the taxes for condoms.
The Malthusian theory introduced in the 18th Century had warned of a growing mismatch between the availability of resources and growth in population. Unbridled population growth, it said, would cause a strain on resources. It cited the natural ways to control population, like pestilence, wars, famine etc., that resulted in wiping out millions of people from the planet. Population, he argued, grew geometrically while food supply increased arithmetically. He proposed actions like late marriages to reduce the population. However, he had not anticipated the future changes in social behaviour, like the growing tendency in wealthy western societies to avoid marriages. Not just the west, but nations like Russia and Japan too face similar situations. It would appear that the trend is catching up with China too, with youths showing lesser interest in marriage and procreation. The modern world offers all the charms of life on a platter. More so the developed societies.
Asian societies that are more tradition-oriented too are changing their perceptions about marriage. With women also becoming a large part of the workforce in mega cities, owning an accommodation is not affordable to many in urban sprawls like Tokyo. Maintaining a family involves a heavy cost. Chinese youths in big cities too are caught in a similar plight. Muslim nations however keep reporting a steady growth in their populations as the religion encourages procreation. In India, where its present 1.40 billion population grows at the rate of one crore a year, the decline of the fertility rate to 1.9 births per woman is raising serious concern, the replacement level being higher at 2.1. This signifies a reversal of the population growth-trend. Notably, a chief minister has gone on record to urge families to have three children.Thomas Malthus had stated in 1798 that nature has its own ways of controlling population –like famine, pestilence and war. Covid-19 came but vaccines blunted its edge in a few months. In nations like India, subsidized food supply through ration shops keeps the poor alive. Wars of the modern kind kill fewer people as these are fought from the skies, and inflict mainly economic disaster for rival nations. It’s but natural that a disinterest among the new societies for procreation comes as a new, natural balancing act.
