The run-up to the February 12 general elections in Bangladesh has been extremely tense- a situation punctuated by the gunning down of prominent youth leader Sharif Osman Hadi by unidentified assailants in Dhaka on December 12. His funeral on Sunday, after an unsuccessful attempt to save his life through hospitalization in Singapore, reflected the deep tension within. Chief adviser to the interim government, Muhammad Yunus, was personally present and addressed the large crowd, paying tributes to the deceased. Osman Hadi was in the forefront of the student offensive that ousted Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League from power last year. The scenes of violence against Hindus by anti-India elements in Bangladesh after Hasina’s ouster from power might assume a fresh vehemence now, if the latest incidents are any indication. India is watching the developments closely. The situation has reached a point wherein India suspended its visa applications in Chittagong after an incident at the office of the Assistant High Commission on Thursday. If violence spirals, the February elections might face serious odds.
The evolving situations in Bangladesh cannot be seen or tackled in isolation. Islamists, backed by Pakistan, are at work there, with several other external entities including China seeking to fish in the troubled waters. Attempts are on to strengthen anti-India feelings among the masses. Long years of close associations between the Hasina-led government and the Indian establishment had not been to the liking of these forces. Under the circumstances, the religious twist was a natural corollary. There have been incidents of physical assaults, temple desecrations and even sexual assaults on hapless people of Indian origin. Yunus has repeatedly promised India to check such persecutions, but this could be beyond his call. Islamist fundamentalists have been getting encouragement from Pakistan’s generals, and more so after Hasina exited from the scene.
Notably, in relation to Bangladesh, Pakistan has its axe to grind against India. The Pakistani generals, who were waiting for an opportunity to play around in Bangladesh ever since its formation half a century ago, are believed to have conspired to fan the anti-establishment sentiments there, leading to Hasina’s abrupt ouster from power. The demand from Dhaka to deport her from exile to face the courts there has not been responded to by the Indian government. She cannot be thrown to the wolves. India has as much of a commitment to Hasina and her family that led the liberation movement against Pakistan and the sway of its notorious generals in the 1970s. Issues are now getting intertwined, with Pakistan leading two fronts against India – one in Kashmir Valley from the sensitive western border and the other through proxy fighting from the eastern side. In these emerging situations, anything is possible. Operation Sindoor did not tame Pakistan. India stresses that this engagement has not been stopped yet, but only suspended. Irrespective of whether or not the big brother is in the loop, for India, the route to tackling the odds in Bangladesh is through tackling Pakistan. A deficit on this front could mean a season of continued regional uncertainties.
