By R C Sharma
Bangladesh is on edge, gripped by state and fundamentalist sponsored unrest since the dethroning of Sheikh Hasina and installation of the interim administration of Muhammad Yunus. The current unrest in Bangladesh is laced with a heavy cocktail of anti-Indianism. This situation was avoidable, had India been correct in its foreign policy assessment of simmering discontent against Sheikh Hasina and not lent legitimacy to the 2018 and 2024 elections, which were termed not free and fair by US state department and other international observers. Sheikh Hasina’s democratic aberrations in the 2024 elections followed by the mass students’ protests to force her to resign, were overlooked by India’s foreign policy establishment. Mass protests forced Hasina to heed the Army’s nudge to resign as a bargain for safe passage into India. India placed all its eggs in one basket, ignoring other political stakeholders and leaving limited space for engagement with future establishment, since a future political establishment in power is likely to be beset with anti-Indianism as the current trends indicate. Had India nudged Sheikh Hasina to take all stakeholders into confidence for conduct of free and fair elections, she could have avoided the diplomatic and security dilemma Bangladesh faces today, wherein a peaceful and reliable eastern neighbour has turned rogue and disruptive affecting safety of minorities which is a highly emotive issue, also affecting external and internal security. It was this tunnel vision which has led to the current Indian isolation in Bangladesh and anti-minority rhetoric.
There are three main stakeholders in the current political landscape in Bangladesh, likely to pull the strings of power that India needs to harness. They are the Bangladesh Nationalist Party led by Acting chairman Tarique Rahman, National Citizens Party (NCP), and Pro-Pakistan jamaat-e-Islami (JeM). India needs to engage with all of them in the interest of peace and stability in the region. This engagement is a must to address civil unrest, security of minorities, infiltration, militancy, radicalization and illegal migration into the North East and stability of the Siliguri corridor. India needs to realize that the North East is separated from India by Bangladesh except for the very narrow Siliguri corridor. A stable, peaceful and developing Bangladesh is a win-win situation for India to access land trade and transit facilities providing supply stability to the North East. Imminent need for India is to engage with all political stakeholders and not repeat the mistake of storing all eggs in one basket and face unresolvable diplomatic and security dilemmas.
What are India’s diplomatic and security dilemmas that it needs to address to improve relations with Bangladesh. The first is to address the aggressive narrative for handing over Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh for facing trial. It is being used as a tool to stoke anti-India and anti-minority feelings. These are geo-political disruptions to fuel instability in the North East with new found ally Pakistan’s ISI. India needs to wait and watch for a new government to take over the reins of power to address these issues since their unresolvable status affects India’s clout as a regional player; affects border security and makes it difficult to counter extremist narratives.
India needs to address the Bangladesh dilemma at two levels of diplomacy and security. Diplomacy must involve aggressive engagement with Bangladesh and security must address porosity, deployment and operational handling of the Indo-Bangladesh border. Border security must address vulnerabilities of Indo-Bangladesh border involving large temporarily manned riverine stretches, unfenced feasible and infeasible gaps, population ahead of fence which makes Indo-Bangladesh border one of the most hostile and difficult borders being managed through tactically unviable non-lethal strategy. Security also must have plans to address Pakistan and Chinese attempts to raise Bangladesh as a third front in case of conventional conflict which may involve preparing the Border Security Force to handle the Bangladesh front in case of such a conflict.
The interim administration has improved relations with Pakistan. Military cooperation, ISI footprints, relaxation in visa requirements for Pakistani citizens and resumption of flights has threatened India’s security and strategic depth in South Asia and the Bay of Bengal with Bangladesh shifting towards the China -Pakistan axis.
India’s security and foreign policy establishment needs to appreciate that India must engage in aggressive diplomacy to address Bangladesh concerns and assure it of consistent and unhindered political and economic support for peace, stability and development. This way it will be able to arrest Bangladesh’s tilt towards Pakistan and China. As a confidence building measure it should restore trans-shipment services to Bangladesh for its export products via India.
Tarique Rahman, seen as the future Prime Minister immediately on return from exile while addressing people said that Bangladesh belongs to people of all faiths including Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists and Christians. This sentiment must be exploited by India for stability in relations with Bangladesh and strengthening border security. India needs to realize that security stakes for India in the region all along Indo-Bangladesh, Indo-Nepal, Indo-Bhutan and Indo-China border are very high with the Siliguri corridor locked within this quadrilateral which is the only land link between the mainland with the eight states. This vulnerability is further compounded with Chinese logistic and infrastructural presence in Bangladesh and its rebuilding of Lalmonirhat airbase in North Bangladesh close to the Siliguri corridor. Group of two as President Trump described USA and China along with common partner Pakistan is trying to dominate Bangladesh to reduce Indian dominance in the region and may be using the current unrest to create an anti-India narrative which India needs to be careful of. It must not rush into hurried security misstep which further isolates Bangladesh into Pakistan and Chinese lap.
India must appreciate that a stable and peaceful Bangladesh is a must for peace, prosperity and stability in India’s North East. It not only provides the cushion and protection to India’s North East but also its role as a player in the development of the North East becomes primary through land trade facilities with Bangladesh. It also becomes a facilitator in India’s Act East Policy.
India must be careful and cautious in dealing with Bangladesh as a stable Bangladesh brings prosperity to India while a hostile Bangladesh becomes a launch pad to create another wave of unrest in the North East and to become a facilitator in the big game of power play to diminish and dilute Indian dominance in the region as the main player. Caution and patience must be the mantra for Indian diplomacy and security establishment without lowering guard on the security front.
(The writer is Commandant(Retd), Border Security Force)
