By Antriksh Kar Singh
The cash schemes targeting several demographic groups, particularly women, on the eve of the state assembly election, apparently became ‘a sure-shot solution’ for political actors across the spectrum.
The recent development happened in poll-bound Assam, where the state government decided to release Rs 8,000 on February 20 as an “advance Bohag Bihu gift” to 37 lakh women beneficiaries listed under Orunodoi. This includes Rs 5,000 ‘Orunodoi’ from January to April, along with a special Rs 3,000 as Bihu gift.
The announcement kick-started controversy as the opposition criticised the move to freeze ‘Orunodoi’ payout for January, claiming it may cause a detrimental effect on disabled, elderly, and those on the lowest social strata. However, political commentators termed it as ‘copying playbooks’ from Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar, where such schemes were credited for the landslide win of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Such a scheme is, however, not limited to only NDA ruled states. Because political actors across the spectrum announced/rolled out schemes in 17 states, including Assam, in the past five years, apparently considering this ‘populistic welfarism’ as a ‘shot in the arm’.
Of those, 13 states have a functional monthly scheme providing Rs 1000 to Rs 2500 to adult women in the state. Odisha provides Rs 10,000 annually in two instalments, while Bihar provides a one-time lump sum of Rs 10,000. These schemes have declared objectives to support livelihood and empower women.
However, it remains to be seen how a meagre monetary support of Rs 1000 to Rs 2500 a month can support livelihood or empower women, when the country has high inflation and a depreciating value of the rupee that fell to a record low of Rs 90 against 1USD.
Further, an analysis of literacy rate (women) data from the Union Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MOSPI) for the states with such a scheme showed a mixed response.
Karnataka (2.50%) and West Bengal (2.80%) recorded an increase in literacy rate among women by June 2024 in comparison to the year of launch of the scheme. Tamil Nadu (0.40%), Telangana (3.80%) and Assam (1.60%) recorded a decline.
The cash scheme in Tamil Nadu and Telangana was launched in March and December 2023, respectively. The literacy rate for these two states in India’s south is still better than that of most Indian states.
But the decline in women’s literacy in Assam is worrying. Orunodoi is one of the oldest continuing monthly payout schemes started in October 2020. The highlighting feature is that women’s participation in the labour force has increased in Assam from 2017-18, as recorded in economic survey 2023-24. The Economic Survey, however, attributes this increase to several initiatives like the Mudra scheme.
So, what exact changes did these schemes cause? The answer to this question is given by the May 2024 report by SBI research, which credited the rollout of women-focused welfare programmes for 1.8 crore more women voting in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections than in 2019.
It further noted that 19 states, including Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Odisha, where women-centric schemes were implemented, recorded an average rise of 7.8 lakh female voters.
However, the states,including those that didn’t implement those schemes, saw an average increase of just 2.5 lakh women voters. But, the most significant finding was recorded in the SBI research study (December 2023) report, finding a relation between the electoral success and the monthly cash given in a scheme in Madhya Pradesh.
Madhya Pradesh’s Ladli Behna Yojana led to a 1% rise in marginalised women receiving benefits, which translated to a 0.36% increase in electoral success rate for the incumbent party- Bharatiya Janata Party in this case, the report stated.
On average, 1 in 8 constituencies (30-35 seats across 8 districts) showed a pro-incumbent outcome in Madhya Pradesh, added the report. Similarly, Bihar, where Mukhya Mantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana provided a one-time sum of Rs 10,000 to 1.25 crore women on the eve of the assembly election, recorded 8.8% higher women voter turnout than men, even surpassing the male voter count in absolute numbers.
When ECI declared the result in November last year, NDA got over 200 in the 243 seats Bihar assembly. The 2025 Bihar electoral experience is significant as it was widely reported that Assam Chief Minister Hemant Biswa Sharma was key in suggesting a one-time cash payout to women instead of a monthly one to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar before the election.
And, now, when Sharma led the Assam government smartly using similar tactics in the form of Rs 8000 “advance Bohag Bihu gift”, the election became interesting even before the announcement of the schedule. Its impact on election results must be seen. Further, there is another important aspect to all these schemes-the monetary cost involved.
An analysis of functional schemes of 14 states (13 monthly and Odisha) showed a whopping annual cost of around Rs 17.50 lakh crore, if all claimed beneficiaries are provided with money. The amount needs to be understood in the context that this amount is around one-third of the union government’s annual expenditure of Rs 50.65 lakh. However, Indian politicians are all of the same breed, as this scheme is just like ‘promising the moon’ to secure a win in an election, but reality remains different. A very similar thing is happening in these women-centric schemes.
A PRS Legislative Research reported that 12 states across India would collectively spend Rs 1.68 trillion on unconditional cash transfer schemes for women in 2025-26, though six have estimated a revenue deficit.
Even this Rs 1.68 trillion cumulative expenditure of 12 states for the cash transfer scheme for women is higher than India’s annual education budget of Rs 1.28 trillion and the Rs 0.998 trillion health budget for 2025-26.
Moreover, the Assam government allocated Rs 5000 crore for the Orunodoi Scheme in the 2025-26 budget, which is higher than the budget for rural development, welfare of SC, ST and OBC, and Housing verticals.
The Orunodoi scheme constituted 37% (over one-third) of total allocation under the Social Welfare and Nutrition head in Assam’s annual budget. Similar schemes have created trouble for states like Madhya Pradesh, whose debt-to-GSDP ratio is very similar to Assam.
Assam’s debt to GSDP ratio is 24.3%, and for Madhya Pradesh, it is 25.7%, where the government is troubled with financing other necessary welfare schemes related to health and education and relies on constant borrowing. A very similar scheme promised in the 2022 Punjab Assembly election became a constant embarrassment and criticism from the opposition for the Aam Aadmi Party-led state government, where the state, with an over 40% debt to GSDP ratio, couldn’t begin monthly payout despite the passage of four years. Similarly, other state governments are accumulating debt, and such cash schemes are further aggravating the problem without any concrete evidence for improvement in the status of marginalised women.
Therefore, the political parties and governments shall reorient themselves to look for a concrete long-term plan for eradicating poverty, providing accessible education and health services, and working for a better, sustainable future. And, in case the political actors continue to stick to such electoral gimmicks, the common man needs to use their ultimate power of vote judiciously.
The author is a third-year doctoral candidate working on digital electoral communication from the Department of Journalism and Mass Communication (JMC), North-Eastern Hill University, Shillong, Meghalaya. He is a former journalist who worked for several English dailies in Madhya Pradesh. Email: [email protected]
