LONDON, Feb 10: A senior European intelligence official, Kaupo Rosin, head of Estonia’s foreign intelligence service, said Russia cannot launch an attack on NATO this year or next due to insufficient resources, but plans to significantly expand its forces along NATO’s eastern flank, depending on the outcome of the war in Ukraine.
Speaking in an online briefing with journalists, Rosin said Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of halting the nearly four-year invasion of Ukraine and believes he can “outsmart” the United States during ongoing negotiations aimed at ending the conflict.
Russia intends to create new military units and multiply prewar forces along the NATO border by two to three times. However, a significant portion of the Russian military will need to remain in Ukraine and within Russia to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks.
According to Rosin, Russia currently lacks the resources to attack NATO, though the Kremlin remains concerned about Europe rearming and preparing for potential military action against Russia in the coming years.
Rosin emphasized that Russian officials are playing for time in talks with Washington, showing little willingness to engage meaningfully.
Intelligence suggests Moscow views the US as its primary adversary. Putin continues to focus on achieving a military victory in Ukraine, relying on selectively optimistic reports from officials that often misrepresent setbacks on the battlefield.
Lower-level officers are more aware of the realities on the ground, while higher-level officials provide positive updates to satisfy Putin’s expectations.
US-brokered negotiations among Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. have produced limited progress, including a recent prisoner exchange in Abu Dhabi involving more than 300 detainees.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has indicated a June deadline for a settlement. Russia expert Fiona Hill, a former adviser to Trump, noted that both Putin and former President Trump likely receive filtered intelligence that aligns with their preferred narratives—Putin as a victor in Ukraine, Trump as a dealmaker.
Meanwhile, Russian attacks in Ukraine continue. On February 10, Russian planes dropped glide bombs on Sloviansk, killing an 11-year-old girl and her mother, injuring 16 others, and damaging 14 apartment blocks.
Nighttime drone attacks elsewhere in Ukraine wounded at least five people, including children.
Rosin warned that the conflict could persist for years unless conditions in Russia or on the front lines become “catastrophic,” threatening Putin’s hold on power.
For now, the Russian leader remains fixated on controlling all of Ukraine and continues to believe he can achieve a military victory despite mounting humanitarian and strategic costs. (AP)
