Washington, March 21: Pakistan appears to be adopting a strategy of controlled distance from the conflict in the Middle East, signalling concern over regional instability while carefully avoiding commitments that could result in direct confrontation with Iran. According to a report in the American magazine ‘The National Interest’, the sustainability of the balancing act would depend on the trajectory of the conflict.
While limited and geographically contained hostilities may allow Pakistan to maintain its current posture, a broader regional escalation could significantly restrict its options. The report noted that Pakistan’s cautious posture is driven by economic concerns with existing fiscal pressures, and volatility in global energy markets risks intensifying domestic economic strain.
“Pakistan imports about 85 per cent of its crude oil, much of it from Gulf producers, making the country particularly vulnerable to disruptions to energy routes through the Strait of Hormuz. If hostilities in the Gulf were to disrupt maritime traffic, Pakistan would likely experience immediate consequences. Energy imports could become more expensive, intensifying inflation and placing additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves,” it stated. “Because most of Pakistan’s trade moves by sea, maritime insecurity would also affect broader commercial activity. Rising insurance costs for shipping, delays in maritime transport, and supply chain uncertainty could deepen economic stress,” it mentioned.
The report asserted that the recent tensions in the Middle East have already contributed to an increase in fuel prices and inflationary pressures in Pakistan. Pakistan’s cautious stance, it said, is also driven by the broader strategic competition among external powers in the region. The report highlighted that Islamabad maintains close economic and military ties with China alongside security cooperation with the United States, while the Gulf stability remain vital to the interests of multiple global actors whose energy supplies depend on “uninterrupted maritime flows”.
“A wider regional war”, it said, “would therefore place Pakistan in a particularly sensitive position, caught between competing strategic relationships and facing immediate economic exposure to disruptions in Gulf energy routes.” The report further said, “Pakistan’s response illustrates a broader reality of the expanding Israel-Iran confrontation. Many regional states are not choosing sides so much as trying to manage exposure to a conflict that threatens their own economic and security stability.”
IANS
