By H Srikanth
When the US and Israel bombed and killed the top-brass leaders in Iran, everyone thought that was the end of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Based on the experience of Iraq, Syria, and Libya, many assumed that there would be a puppet regime in Iran that would dismantle the nuclear program and hand over the oil reserves to the US. But nothing of that sort happened. To everyone’s surprise, Iran fought back and it continues to fight the combined forces of two nuclear nations–the US and Israel–which boast of the most sophisticated weapons, ammunition, radars, interceptors, and surveillance systems. None of the original objectives for which the US and Israel attacked Iran have been realized. Iran not only resisted the aggression and even compelled the Trump regime to negotiate the terms of a ceasefire. Iran has redefined and perfected the art and science of asymmetric warfare.
Many who viewed Iran as just another Muslim country underestimated the strength of its political and military establishment. Unlike Iraq and Libya, which relied on the strength of individual personalities like Saddam Hussein and Col. Gaddafi, Iran created a powerful yet flexible political establishment, following the Mosaic doctrine. In the system that Iran created, individual leaders matter little. If any leaders die or are assassinated, their positions will be instantly replaced by others in the line. Khomeini is not an individual leader; it is a position, which will be filled by others in the hierarchy of religious leaders. So are the political and military positions. Instead of concentrating its forces in and around Tehran, Iran has de-centered its military and political establishments, locating the units under different commands.
The leadership in Iran knows that one day they have to confront the US, which lost its hold over Iran in 1979, and Israel, which views Iran as a potential challenger to its supremacy in the Middle East. Iran has been preparing for war for decades. Iran knows it cannot match the US or Israel in conventional weapons like warplanes, ships, and tanks. Hence, it focused on indigenous missile and drone technologies and developed a variety of missiles suited to its military needs. Sometimes, Iran acquired military technology from Russia and Iran. Instead of opting for costly weapons, they started producing low-cost drones and missiles in bulk. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) used Iran’s geography–its vast size, mountainous regions, long coastline, its islands, and its geographical proximity to Gulf countries – to its advantage. It built fortified underground ‘military cities’ where it preserved its missiles and drones, preventing aerial surveillance and attacks by enemies. Iran ensured no one had prior knowledge of the weapons it possessed. The world was in awe when Iran fired cluster missiles, bombs, and ICBMs at Diego Garcia.
Accumulating weapons makes little sense if the country does not have an effective military strategy. The waves of Iran’s missiles and drones pierced through the prestigious Israeli Iron Dome, the American radars and other interceptors dysfunctional and caused heavy financial losses to the US and Israel. Iran’s cluster bombs forced the Israelis to take shelter inside the bunkers for weeks. The US and Israel could destroy Iran’s aircraft and warships, and attack oil reserves and civilian infrastructure in Iran. In response, Iran destroyed the aircraft, including F-15E jets, challenging US prestige and supremacy in warfare. Using non-state actors such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hizbullah in Lebanon, and the Shia militants in Iraq, Iran forced Israel to focus on multiple fronts. Avoiding a conventional one-to-one battle, Iran expanded the zone of conflict by attacking Gulf countries. To preempt the US from using its military bases in the Gulf, Iran bombed military and financial establishments in Gulf countries, causing panic among the Gulf rulers allied with the US.
The most effective strategy that Iran adopted in the war was to globalize the conflict by blockading the Strait of Hormuz. It is through the Strait of Hormuz that 20 to 30 percent of oil and gas is traded across the countries. Iran began regulating the movement of commercial ships and imposed a toll on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormoz. It declared that it would trade its oil in petro-yuan, instead of petro-dollars. Iran’s control over Hormoz increased oil and gas prices in different countries, including the US, and adversely affected the global stock index. The crisis compelled the US to forget the original demand for regime change and make the opening of Hormuz its immediate goal.
A good war strategy seeks to minimize the number of enemies and increase the number of supporters. Iran maintained good relations with Russia and China. Russia has been providing military and technological support to Iran. China depends heavily on oil supplies from Iran. During the war, China and Russia stood by Iran and vetoed the Security Council resolution against Iran. Apart from relying on China and Russia, Iran used global contradictions to ensure that NATO countries in Europe do not join the US and Israel’s war against Iran. Iran could neutralize NATO countries in Europe and ensure they would not join US military operations against Iran. Taking advantage of their dependence on oil from the Gulf, Iran assured it would keep the Strait open to all countries except the US and Israel. While attacking US military and financial establishments in Gulf countries, Iran assured that its fight was not against the Arab countries. All it wanted from the Gulf countries was to ensure they did not allow the US to use military bases in their countries against Iran. Further, by supporting the Palestinian cause, Iran sought to bridge the gulf between the Sunnis and the Shias and project itself as the leader of all Muslims.
Modern warfare involves not only arms and ammunition but also perceptions and propaganda. While attacking Iran, the US and Israel tried to project the Iranian regime as undemocratic and illegitimate. Iran effectively countered the western propaganda by showing that the regime in power has the support of the crores of Iranians. By showcasing the bombing of the school, which killed over 165 innocent children, Iran exposed how hollow the US-Israeli claims about human rights are. By appealing to the people of the US, Iran convinced a large section of Americans that America is fighting the war at the behest of Israel, and the war is not in the interest of American citizens. Through effective propaganda, Iran neutralized the US and Israeli attempts to paint Iran as a barbarian state and a threat to world peace. Despite the losses it suffered, Iran agreed to negotiate with the US but refused to submit to its one-sided demands. By valiantly resisting the aggressors, Iran won the admiration of all progressive forces in the world opposed to imperialist aggression.
In the war of public perceptions, Iran has already won. But the actual war has not ended. There is a deadlock in the peace negotiations, as the US expects Iran to accept conditions that are not acceptable to Iran. One needs to see whether the US resumes full-scale attacks after the ceasefire ends. If the war continues, Iran would inflict considerable damage on the aggressors and deepen the political and economic crises in the US and Israel. True, the Iranians will also suffer, but they would not give up. For Iran, it is a war of survival.
