EXIT-polls are not necessarily trustworthy, but collectively they stress a few points. The results of such polls released by multiple media agencies this week, prima facie, signify massive dissatisfaction of the people against their state governments. They generally hint that West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala could see a change of government, while the BJP-ruled Assam appears to have voted for continuity. So did Puducherry where a regional party shares power with the BJP. The final assembly poll results on May 4 may even provide a different picture, but ground realities also suggest that strong sentiments prevailed against the governments of Tamil Nadu, Kerala etc., while Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee had a hard struggle keeping her folk together. Mamata, having ruled Bengal for three consecutive terms, it is likely that the people are looking for a change. Bengal is not given to quick change of political commitments. It repeatedly elected Left Front governments from the mid-70s to 2011 and then placed eminent trust in Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress. Clearly, the BJP did its best to unseat her in the last polls too but intensified its offensive this time, evident also from the long presence of Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Shah there through the campaign period.
Assam has been a stronghold for the BJP in recent years. The special electoral rolls revision across poll-bound states including Bihar, Bengal and Assam by the Election Commission apparently helped in the removal of lakhs of bogus voters in these states. Who benefited from this would be clear when the election results are out on May 4. The BJP played its cards zealously in Assam, raising feelings against the minorities, settlers from Bangladesh etc., through frequent campaigns. There was no anti-incumbency feelings there. However, in Tamil Nadu, powerful MK Stalin of the DMK seems having trouble retaining power. Exit poll results show actor-turned politician Vijay, who recently formed the TVK party and campaigned extensively, might call the shots there at the expense of the traditional heavyweights, the DMK and the AIADMK. National parties have minor influence in Tamil Nadu, as has been the case for long, while new regional parties sprout.
Chances are that the LDF government in Kerala would hang up its boots. An anti-incumbency factor was at work there as chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan was ruling the state for the last two terms. His first term was impressive, which helped him win the last polls and continue the LDF rule. This time, he obviously faltered on multiple fronts and alienated the minorities through his whimsical actions. With his health deteriorating, Vijayan at age 80 is facing political odds, which could be to the advantage of the Congress-led UDF. Exit polls are clear that the UDF would grab power there. At the national level, through these five state polls, both BJP and the Congress appear to have benefited in one or other state. For the Congress, a gain in Kerala would help raise its clout in the South, where the party already rules Karnataka and Telangana.
