WASHINGTON, May 10: Weeks before his visit to China, President Donald Trump predicted that Chinese President Xi Jinping would warmly welcome him in Beijing.
However, tensions linked to the Iran conflict, trade disputes, and broader US-China rivalry are expected to make the trip less celebratory than Trump’s lavish first-term visit in 2017.
Trump is expected to spend only parts of three days in China. While Beijing is preparing ceremonial events, analysts say the trip will not match the grandeur of the 2017 “state visit-plus,” during which Xi hosted Trump inside the Forbidden City, arranged a military parade, and held a state banquet featuring performances and tributes to the Trump family.
Experts say the cooler atmosphere reflects worsening relations between Washington and Beijing, especially over tariffs, Taiwan, and strategic competition.
Former US National Security Council official Jonathan Czin said relations were already tense before the Iran war escalated.
Ali Wyne of the Crisis Group noted that while China may still stage an impressive visit, the purpose has changed: Xi now understands Trump better and views the US-China relationship as one defined by rivalry between near-peer powers rather than potential partnership.
Expectations for major policy breakthroughs are low. Chinese leaders are believed to be calculating how upcoming US midterm elections could shift Washington’s negotiating position.
Although the White House insists the US remains strong after Trump’s tough tariff policies, China continues to resist pressure on trade.
The Iran conflict also complicates the visit. China has extensive economic ties with Iran and depends heavily on Iranian oil.
Trump had unsuccessfully urged Beijing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian disruptions affected global trade.
China later used its influence with Tehran to support a fragile ceasefire, which could strengthen Beijing’s hand in future trade negotiations with Washington.
Despite tensions, Trump has repeatedly praised Xi, describing him in past interviews as someone he “got along with great.”
Trump has often emphasised his personal rapport with the Chinese leader and suggested Xi respects him. Analysts say Xi values Trump’s transactional and narrower approach to strategic competition compared with other US presidents.
Trade remains a central sticking point. Many trade agreements announced during Trump’s first term never materialized, while more recent tariff threats triggered Chinese retaliation, including restrictions on US soybeans and rare earth exports.
Although a recent trade truce has eased tensions somewhat, both sides remain focused on economic leverage and reducing imbalances.
The White House says Trump intends to secure new deals during the visit, even as broader geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the relationship. (AP)
