By Bhogtoram Mawroh
I have been in toxic relationships, and therefore I can recognize one when I see it. Perhaps the most toxic relationship right now is the one between the BJP and the NPP. After the BJP won the Bengal and Assam elections, the BJP Meghalaya state unit declared that the party would form the government in 2028. This prompted Wailadmiki Shylla, a cabinet minister from the NPP in the present MDA government, to caution that victory in Bengal and Assam would not necessarily translate into success in Meghalaya. I would agree with him because the issues that resonated in those two states are not going to be similar here. Granted, the spectre of illegal immigration is considered an existential threat in all three states; however, the identity of the perceived threat is quite different.
In West Bengal and Assam, Bengali Muslims are perceived as the primary threat, whereas in Meghalaya, the anxiety is directed towards all non-indigenous people. To counter this hostility, the BJP would need to adopt a secular and inclusive approach towards all communities and refrain from discriminating on the basis of ethnicity or religion, which is unlikely to happen considering the speeches made by some of the winning candidates in Bengal. After winning the Nandigram seat, Suvendu Adhikari, the new Chief Minister of the state, claimed that the entire Muslim vote had gone to the TMC and therefore he would only work for Hindus. For many in the state, therefore, the BJP is identified with Hindutva, i.e., the idea that the country should become an overtly Hindu state. It is not only Muslims who are under threat under such a regime. Alexander Laloo Hek, senior BJP leader, himself raised concerns about the contentious Foreign Contribution Regulation (Amendment) Bill, 2026, which was seen as unfairly targeting Christian-led charitable institutions.
The sense of unease about the BJP was best exemplified during the 2023 Assembly elections, when Mariahom Kharkrang, the BJP’s chief spokesperson, surged ahead of Adelbert Nongrum, now a suspended VPP legislator, in the initial rounds for the North Shillong seat. Commentators vocalised their concern about the possibility of the BJP winning the constituency, which is considered a hotbed of Khasi nationalism. However, Khasi votes consolidated in the subsequent rounds, and Adelbert Nongrum won by a thin margin of around 5%. Then, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the VPP secured a decisive victory by winning 55% of the total vote.
Most of those who voted for the VPP did so because it was seen as the latest iteration of a regional party espousing Khasi-first or jaidbynriew politics. The agitation demanding a review of the reservation policy had cemented that image. However, recently, the party has given the impression that it is no longer interested in pursuing the issue, as seen from its refusal to take part in the recent all-party meeting on the Reservation Policy report. In defence of not attending the meeting, the party reiterated that it still wants reservation based on population ratio, which, however, clashes with its belated acceptance of keeping the Garo share intact—a highly convoluted and contradictory position. That said, ethno-nationalism, of which Hindutva is also an example, does not always depend on rationality but rather on emotions.
Those Khasis who voted for the VPP in the 2024 election may again vote for the party because, although they may feel cheated on the issue of Reservation, they will still believe that the party is the best option to protect Khasi interests against outsiders. Many who espouse “jaidbynriew politics” believe that the “Khasis are in danger,” much like the slogan that claims that “Hindus are in danger.” Is the BJP hoping that the majority of such voters will somehow shift their support to them—a party that recently proposed transforming the Mawjymbuin Cave into a Hindu religious tourist site? SIR (Special Intensive Revision) and delimitation were major factors in the West Bengal and Assam elections. According to a report by Anant Gupta in Scroll.in, in 105 seats won by the BJP in West Bengal, the number of voters deleted during the SIR exceeded the party’s margin of victory. For instance, Mamata Banerjee lost by around 15,000 votes from Bhabanipur where more than 50,000 voters had reportedly been deleted, and she was not the only case. Similarly, Rokibuz Zaman carried out a detailed analysis of the delimitation exercise in Assam, revealing that it was designed to ensure that Muslim voters would play a decisive role in only 23 out of the state’s 126 constituencies. Reports also suggest that more than six lakh new voters were added to the West Bengal electoral rolls after the publication of the final voter list, with some observers claiming that no clear explanation was provided regarding the identity of these voters.
At the same time, it cannot be denied that anti-incumbency was also an important issue in West Bengal, with the TMC being accused of failing to deliver on governance. In Assam, almost all the winning Congress candidates were Muslims, which suggests that the BJP was able to portray the Congress as a party that supports illegal immigration into the state. To win convincingly enough to form a government on its own, the BJP would have to transform itself into a pro-jaidbynriew party that treats practically every non-indigenous community as immigrants who threaten the demographic structure of the state. Will the BJP be able to carry out such a rebranding?
For the voters who feel cheated by the VPP on the issue of reservation, they will also be somewhat concerned by its heavy-handedness regarding the succession issue in Hima Sohra, with indications that the KHADC might prefer someone other than Marremdor Syiem, despite him having the support of the community. Such voters may either vote for the Congress or the NPP in the upcoming by-election, considering that they have announced D. Rockyer Lyngdoh Nonglait, Professor of Khasi at North-Eastern Hill University and president of the Khasi Authors’ Society, as their candidate. In the Garo Hills, the recent prohibition on non-indigenous people contesting ADC elections is seen more as the personal achievement of Bernard Marak than that of the BJP itself. Therefore, for the BJP to have even a realistic chance of forming the government, it must perform well in two very important upcoming elections: the GHADC elections and the Lok Sabha by-poll for the Shillong seat.
But there is actually a way in which the BJP can come to power without winning those two elections. It can use the most common weapon in its political toolkit: engineering defections among opponents and cannibalising alliance partners.
The two states where the BJP won, Assam and Bengal, are now governed by former opposition leaders, Himanta Biswa Sarma and Suvendu Adhikari, who joined the BJP after allegations of corruption, were made against them. Suvendu Adhikari was in fact once mocked by Narendra Modi himself during an election rally. Today, however, he was seen embracing the Prime Minister after becoming the Chief Minister of Bengal. So there is a high likelihood that one route for the BJP to grow beyond the two seats it currently holds in the state is by persuading opposition legislators to join them. The best example is AAP leader Raghav Chadha, who defected to the BJP.
But the biggest prize would be engineering defections among its allies. Not long ago, the Home Minister of the country, Amit Shah, labelled the NPP-led government as the most corrupt in the country. The problem was that he made those claims in Hindi and not in Khasi or Garo. Therefore, many people did not understand what he said. But given that the claim came from someone occupying such a high office, it would suggest that there must be some evidence of corruption against the NPP—unless, of course, it was merely a lie or a “jumla” meant only for campaign purposes. But if there is any truth to the allegation, the BJP could use that information to engineer a split in the NPP and capture the government. The most pertinent examples are the Shiv Sena. This possibility of betrayal is very much present considering the statements made by the state BJP unit that it will form the government on its own in 2028. It is for this reason that I believe the BJP-NPP alliance is a perfect example of a toxic relationship where, despite being together, at least one partner does everything possible to humiliate and disrespect the other. Why else would such a statement be made while still remaining in an alliance?
(The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not reflect in any way his affiliation to any organisation or institution)
