By Harihar Swarup
The successful surgical operation in terrorists’ camps across the borders in Pakistan has suddenly boosted the plummeting stock of the BJP. The general perception among people is that this is, perhaps, for the first time,that Indian forces went inside an enemy country, destroyed the militants shelters and training camps. Initially, the Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the government’s bold step. The Congress, however, claimed that such strikes had taken place when Manmohan Singh was the Prime Minister, and the only difference was that it was not publicized at that time and kept a secret.
Pakistan has denied that any surgical strike had taken place. Some opposition parties, out of fear, that the BJP has been gaining the lost grounds fast and may sweep the coming elections in Uttar Pradesh, have also began doubting the veracity of the surgical strikes. However, there is no way of verifying these strikes and we have to take on the face value the government’s version. There is no way of checking how many terrorists camps were destroyed and how many of them were killed in the surgical operation.
Doubtless, at the moment, the stock of the BJP is high. If elections are held now it is bound to do well in the polls. But one doesn’t know if the favourable atmosphere will continue till the run up of the UP assembly elections.
The BJP has now turned out to be a serious contender for power in UP. The party had won 73 Lok Sabha seats out of a total of 80 in 2014. Lok Sabha poll The BJP’s stakes are high in these elections. To continue to hold nationally, the BJP must win UP as it will impact 2019 general elections. The party President, Amit Shah and other BJP leaders have started spending considerable time in the state to strategize in the election. The USP is development—sabka vikas, sabka saath—and the strategy seems to be to highlight of the administrative and law and order failures of the Akhilesh government and politicize every incident of violence as communal, thereby, dividing the electorate on communal lines.
The media is generally supportive, and social media in particularly, are often supportive of the BJP in such cases. The SP government and party workers have to walk an extra mile to combat the communal force from whichever quarter it comes. The SP is having a tough time as due to family squabbles, the Party is nt able to launch the poll campaign with all its full strength..
BSP’s supremo Mayawati, is generally perceived to be a better leader and a chief minister in terms law and order in the state. As such she and other opponents miss no opportunity to attack Akhilesh Yadav on this front. The Samajwadi Party leadership should remember that the party lost the elections in 2007 on the issue of law and order, though in terms of development and social justice, the government was doing well.
As a tactical mistake then, the SP launched its campaign with Amitabh Bachchan’s advertisement claiming ‘crime in UP is less’, thereby, keeping the focus on law and order—its weak point—and not development, its strength. Over and above this, the irresponsible statement about Nithihari case by Shivpal Yadav the then cabinet minister in the Mulayam Singh government, worked as last nail in the SP’s coffin.
Besides, law and order and social equality on the basis of equity, caste and religion, development is likely to be the major issue. In UP polls, Akhilesh is likely to fare better than Shivpal Yadav. Mulayam Singh should realize it sooner than later that it is vital to give his son a free hand in the campaign and resolve family feud, which may lead to heavy loss in the electoral battle in the state.
The Congress is trying to revive itself in UP by consolidating Brahmins as the main building block around which other groups can gravitate for a reasonably strong foothold in the state. The strategy may do some good to the party, but the general perception continues to be that the Congress is not in any consideration for power this time and hence may get at best, third or fourth position in the elections.
What may help Congress is coming in poll campaign of Priyanka Gandhi. She has decided to join hands with her brother Rahul Gandhi to electioneer in entire UP. Her charismatic image looks somewhat identical to her grandmother Indira Gandhi. People see in her the image of the late Prime Minister. Her active campaign may help Congress to gain more seats compared to the present but that will not be adequate to meet the challenge of three other major parties, BJP, SP and BSP. (IPA Service)
