Last week British Prime Minister Theresa May postponed a parliament vote on the Brexit deal; survived a no-confidence motion brought by conservative party members and then faced a stumbling block as EU leaders refused to renegotiate a deal. In a referendum in 2016, the British public voted by a narrow margin for leaving the EU. The exit is due to take place on March 19, 2019. A withdrawal agreement was struck in November 2018 about the modalities of the exit. The UK and EU were to make a trade deal and give businesses the time to adjust. Amid much concern Prime Minister, May anticipated that the Bill on the withdrawal agreement would not pass parliament and decided to postpone its passage. Criticism mounted. Continuance as Prime Minister was threatened. May went to Brussels to ask the EU for changes in the agreement before bringing the deal back to parliament. The move backfired.
The UK appears to be stuck with the deal which has been renegotiated already. If the Bill fails to pass parliament, which has to be done in three weeks, uncertainty will prevail in the UK. There are a number of possible scenarios. The UK may leave the EU without a deal. There may be another referendum which will require new legislation and majority support in parliament. A fresh election cannot be ruled out. Ministers have been quoted as saying that the government was not prepared for a second referendum and is sticking to the deal hoping that the bill will pass in parliament with just a few changes. Many senior ‘leave’ supporters believe the deal will be acceptable if preparations are made. Critics disagree. They argue that a deal would have disastrous consequences. Businesses will be adversely affected. There will be chaos at the border. Food prices will shoot up. A shortage of essential goods will occur.
Another hurdle is Northern Ireland which is part of the UK. Under the present EU arrangements it is easy for people to cross the border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. But if tensions prevail, barriers between the north and the south would revive. The conflict ended in 1998. The ‘Backs Top’ plan to ensure a smooth border is now in a state of uncertainty. While Theresa May has impressed many observers through her personal resilience, the Tories are bitterly divided over Europe and, with Labour pledging to oppose her forthcoming Westminster motion, the firm indications are that it is heading for defeat. In that eventuality, May would have no option but to resign.
