The scare of drought has lessened somewhat. For the first time during this monsoon, the weekly rainfall in the country has been 6% above average. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) however has not stated if it will make up for shortages in June and July. The total rainfall in the country is still 12% below normal. If there is a fall from 10%, the year it called a drought year. In 2009, India had acute drought due to a 22% shortfall. The situation becomes grim if weather forecasts go awry. In April this year the IMD thought rains would be 99% of the expected average. But even with the recent increase in rainfall, it may be just 47%. Since June, the deficit has stood at 29%. A wet July will not wipe that out. The IMD has forecast a wet September. The problem is that the weather prediction machinery needs to be upgraded.
This upgradation is necessary especially for horticulture which means production of fruits and vegetables Paddy can adapt to variations in rainfall with a window for 140 days. Horticulture can allow a window of less than 60 days. Unpredictability of forecasting can blast its output. India is the second largest producer of fruits and vegetables after China in the whole world. The government plans to introduce competition in the meteorological sector and minimize uncertainty. No political party will dispute the need for upgrading the machinery. Agricultural produce prices are shooting up. There have been suicides among farmers. The country’s population lives mainly on agriculture. Drought will make the situation utterly dismal.
