Narendra Modi, who enters the second year of his third term as Prime Minister this month, has reasons to hold his head high. Neither his government nor his party is facing any hurdles in their forward march. The national economy remains in good shape, while political stability and favourable monsoons are helping in economic growth, taking India to the level of the world’s fourth largest economy. Chances of it becoming the third largest are bright, though the first two – the US and China – are far ahead and unassailable in the near future. By 2028, India hopes to have a GDP of $5.58 trillion, positioning it ahead of Germany. Political stability and economic growth are supplementary and complementary to each other. One helps the other; and if one fails, the other would be hit too. Modi and the BJP are fortunate to have stability on both these fronts. At the same time, India is at the lowest in terms of per capita GDP, at $2,480, due to its population bulge and other reasons. China facing the same constraint however has its figure at $12,164 – impressive compared to India’s positioning, while the US at the top level boasts of a high per capita GDP of $82,769. Under Modi’s terms, the rich grew richer and the poor remained mostly where they were in the past. The free/subsidized ration system, however, keeps the unfortunate hoi-polloi’s tempers under control, which helps in political stability as well.
Modi has been fortunate on the political front too. He won a third term for the BJP but failed to gather a majority of seats in the 2024 parliament polls. This resulted in new allies like the TDP, JDU and JDS propping up the central government and extracting their pounds of flesh. Yet, the BJP won three assembly polls hands down in the last one year – in Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi, reinforcing the PM’s clout as well that of the saffron party. The opposition is nursing its wounds from these set-backs. What came as a fresh boost to the image of the PM and the ruling establishment was Operation Sindoor, which helped India demonstrate its hi-tech military might and reinforce the resolve of its soldiers. The political leadership will have many questions to answer when Parliament meets. For now, however, Modi is winning praise from within and outside.
Several sectors saw progress in the past 11 years, mainly in the infrastructure, defence production-acquisition sectors, and in raising the national revenue through GST, a gold mine. That the GST’s conceptualisation was during the UPA period under Manmohan Singh is not lost sight of. Reforms in other sectors have mostly suffered under Modi, including in the vital agricultural sector where he brought in bills but cut and ran. Corruption has grown hugely in the bureaucracy, not excluding officials of the central investigating agencies like the CBI and ED. This, even as Modi and his ministers are claiming to be incorruptible.
