A defence and security pact signed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan this week cannot be taken lightly. The agreement stresses that any aggression by any nation against either Pakistan or Saudi Arabia “shall be considered an aggression against both.” An attack on one meant an “attack on both.” The pact however stops short of saying how their responses would be in the event of a war – leaving the question of “participation” ambiguous. This gives both the countries scope for studied responses to emerging situations. Ground realities are such that a war is more likely between India and Pakistan in future, while the scope for aggressions is for real between Saudi Arabia and the nations in its neighbourhood. Such possibilities include situations vis-à-vis nuclear-armed Israel as also pro-Shia nations like Iran. Another irritation for Saudi Arabia is Yemen’s Houthi rebels it foughtfor decades.
It would be tempting to relate the present Saudi-Pakistan pact to Operation Sindoor, and the Israeli attack against the Hamas rebels in Doha, Qatar with tacit backing from President Trump. The Doha aggression has shocked the Gulf nations that depend on the US for their security. For their survival, a gang-up of the Islamic entities in the geopolitical region might be attempted at. Notably, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already had a loose security pact for decades, but the present agreement goes one big step further. Likely, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are visualising a NATO-style defence pact signifying collective response to any aggression in future. Chances are also that this formalizes a “secret deal” between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan over the latter’s nuclear programme –which is suspected to be funded by Riyadh with Israel in mind. Saudi Arabia’s assertion in the context of the agreement that its relations with India remain “robust” must be taken with a pinch of salt.
Yet, ground realities are such that Saudis cannot afford to antagonize India in view of the strong trade and business relations they maintain bilaterally – which is of the order of $42 billion; ten times higher than the trade ties Saudi has with Pakistan. India’s high standing on the world stage and its power to influence global power blocks cannot be taken lightly by Saudi Arabia. Significantly, the new Saudi-Pakistan defence pact has been signed at a time India has developed issues with the US and we have alternatively sought to build bridges with China. The resultant confusion that currently prevails in New Delhi’s diplomatic about-turns need to be cleared. The Delhi-Moscow defence pact in the 1970s, when the USSR and India were close allies, is an old story. This had helped India, under Indira Gandhi, to effectively weather odds and neutralise security threats from even the US. Standing alone is no more an option for India. The threat from China is for real. Bangladesh, another neighbour that shares the long eastern border, is charting a different course. So is Nepal, which is being wooed by Beijing.
